Post-frontal warming after a strong cold front that swept across South Africa in the preceding days is the main driver behind the Polymarket distribution favoring 26–28 °C maxima in Cape Town on August 13. Recent South African Weather Service and global model guidance point to a moderating Atlantic high and reduced onshore flow that should permit daytime temperatures to climb into the mid-20s amid typical winter variability. Historical August averages near 18 °C provide context for the upside potential, while spread across outcomes reflects model divergence on exact peak values and timing of any residual cloud or wind effects. Traders are weighting the 27 °C bin highest because it aligns with the current consensus range, though shifts in steering patterns or late adjustments to the high-pressure ridge could readily move the realized maximum by 1–2 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on August 13?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on August 13?
27°C 35%
28°C 27%
26°C 17%
29°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
5%
26°C
17%
27°C
35%
28°C
27%
29°C
15%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 35%
28°C 27%
26°C 17%
29°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
21°C or below
$535 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$831 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$918 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$515 Vol.
2%
25°C
$594 Vol.
5%
26°C
$1,535 Vol.
17%
27°C
$1,044 Vol.
35%
28°C
$892 Vol.
27%
29°C
$576 Vol.
15%
30°C
$159 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$397 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Post-frontal warming after a strong cold front that swept across South Africa in the preceding days is the main driver behind the Polymarket distribution favoring 26–28 °C maxima in Cape Town on August 13. Recent South African Weather Service and global model guidance point to a moderating Atlantic high and reduced onshore flow that should permit daytime temperatures to climb into the mid-20s amid typical winter variability. Historical August averages near 18 °C provide context for the upside potential, while spread across outcomes reflects model divergence on exact peak values and timing of any residual cloud or wind effects. Traders are weighting the 27 °C bin highest because it aligns with the current consensus range, though shifts in steering patterns or late adjustments to the high-pressure ridge could readily move the realized maximum by 1–2 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
Volume
$7,998End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Post-frontal warming after a strong cold front that swept across South Africa in the preceding days is the main driver behind the Polymarket distribution favoring 26–28 °C maxima in Cape Town on August 13. Recent South African Weather Service and global model guidance point to a moderating Atlantic high and reduced onshore flow that should permit daytime temperatures to climb into the mid-20s amid typical winter variability. Historical August averages near 18 °C provide context for the upside potential, while spread across outcomes reflects model divergence on exact peak values and timing of any residual cloud or wind effects. Traders are weighting the 27 °C bin highest because it aligns with the current consensus range, though shifts in steering patterns or late adjustments to the high-pressure ridge could readily move the realized maximum by 1–2 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,998End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Post-frontal warming after a strong cold front that swept across South Africa in the preceding days is the main driver behind the Polymarket distribution favoring 26–28 °C maxima in Cape Town on August 13. Recent South African Weather Service and global model guidance point to a moderating Atlantic high and reduced onshore flow that should permit daytime temperatures to climb into the mid-20s amid typical winter variability. Historical August averages near 18 °C provide context for the upside potential, while spread across outcomes reflects model divergence on exact peak values and timing of any residual cloud or wind effects. Traders are weighting the 27 °C bin highest because it aligns with the current consensus range, though shifts in steering patterns or late adjustments to the high-pressure ridge could readily move the realized maximum by 1–2 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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