Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory project a daily maximum of 33–35°C for August 12 under partly sunny skies with isolated showers, aligning with the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures driven by long-term warming trends and recent heatwave conditions that produced maxima near 34–36°C. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for 34°C reflects this narrow consensus range from ensemble models and real-time observations, with resolution based on the official HKO station reading. Stronger or earlier convective activity could cap the peak nearer 33°C, while prolonged clear periods might allow brief spikes toward 35°C, though current atmospheric stability and humidity levels make substantial deviations unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12?
34°C 99.8%
36°C <1%
35°C <1%
28°C or below <1%
$185,820 Vol.
$185,820 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
100%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
34°C 99.8%
36°C <1%
35°C <1%
28°C or below <1%
$185,820 Vol.
$185,820 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
28°C or below
$1,194 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,260 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$6,308 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$5,405 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$29,063 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$34,161 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$38,059 Vol.
100%
35°C
$29,564 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$29,757 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$10,411 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$2,444 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory project a daily maximum of 33–35°C for August 12 under partly sunny skies with isolated showers, aligning with the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures driven by long-term warming trends and recent heatwave conditions that produced maxima near 34–36°C. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for 34°C reflects this narrow consensus range from ensemble models and real-time observations, with resolution based on the official HKO station reading. Stronger or earlier convective activity could cap the peak nearer 33°C, while prolonged clear periods might allow brief spikes toward 35°C, though current atmospheric stability and humidity levels make substantial deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$185,820End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory project a daily maximum of 33–35°C for August 12 under partly sunny skies with isolated showers, aligning with the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures driven by long-term warming trends and recent heatwave conditions that produced maxima near 34–36°C. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for 34°C reflects this narrow consensus range from ensemble models and real-time observations, with resolution based on the official HKO station reading. Stronger or earlier convective activity could cap the peak nearer 33°C, while prolonged clear periods might allow brief spikes toward 35°C, though current atmospheric stability and humidity levels make substantial deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$185,820End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory project a daily maximum of 33–35°C for August 12 under partly sunny skies with isolated showers, aligning with the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal temperatures driven by long-term warming trends and recent heatwave conditions that produced maxima near 34–36°C. Trader consensus at 99.9% implied probability for 34°C reflects this narrow consensus range from ensemble models and real-time observations, with resolution based on the official HKO station reading. Stronger or earlier convective activity could cap the peak nearer 33°C, while prolonged clear periods might allow brief spikes toward 35°C, though current atmospheric stability and humidity levels make substantial deviations unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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