Current medium-range forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF show the highest London temperature on July 17 most likely falling in the 26–28°C range, reflected in the market's concentrated but still dispersed odds around 27°C. Key variables include the evolving position of high pressure over northern Europe, which could draw warmer continental air masses northward, versus Atlantic troughs that favor cooler maritime flows and increased cloud cover. Model runs continue to diverge on jet stream placement and surface wind direction, with small shifts potentially tipping outcomes by 2–3°C. July climatology places typical maxima near 22–24°C, so any outcome above 29°C would require strong anticyclonic setup, while sub-25°C readings would signal an unusually strong northerly component. Updated model guidance over the next 48 hours will likely narrow this spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on July 17?
Highest temperature in London on July 17?
27°C 34%
28°C 25%
26°C 24%
29°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 17, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
10%
26°C
24%
27°C
34%
28°C
25%
29°C
13%
30°C
8%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 34%
28°C 25%
26°C 24%
29°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 17, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
24°C
$4 Vol.
2%
25°C
$100 Vol.
10%
26°C
$316 Vol.
24%
27°C
$182 Vol.
34%
28°C
$10 Vol.
25%
29°C
$0 Vol.
13%
30°C
$5 Vol.
8%
31°C
$0 Vol.
1%
32°C
$152 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$5 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current medium-range forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF show the highest London temperature on July 17 most likely falling in the 26–28°C range, reflected in the market's concentrated but still dispersed odds around 27°C. Key variables include the evolving position of high pressure over northern Europe, which could draw warmer continental air masses northward, versus Atlantic troughs that favor cooler maritime flows and increased cloud cover. Model runs continue to diverge on jet stream placement and surface wind direction, with small shifts potentially tipping outcomes by 2–3°C. July climatology places typical maxima near 22–24°C, so any outcome above 29°C would require strong anticyclonic setup, while sub-25°C readings would signal an unusually strong northerly component. Updated model guidance over the next 48 hours will likely narrow this spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$773End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current medium-range forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF show the highest London temperature on July 17 most likely falling in the 26–28°C range, reflected in the market's concentrated but still dispersed odds around 27°C. Key variables include the evolving position of high pressure over northern Europe, which could draw warmer continental air masses northward, versus Atlantic troughs that favor cooler maritime flows and increased cloud cover. Model runs continue to diverge on jet stream placement and surface wind direction, with small shifts potentially tipping outcomes by 2–3°C. July climatology places typical maxima near 22–24°C, so any outcome above 29°C would require strong anticyclonic setup, while sub-25°C readings would signal an unusually strong northerly component. Updated model guidance over the next 48 hours will likely narrow this spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$773End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current medium-range forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and ECMWF show the highest London temperature on July 17 most likely falling in the 26–28°C range, reflected in the market's concentrated but still dispersed odds around 27°C. Key variables include the evolving position of high pressure over northern Europe, which could draw warmer continental air masses northward, versus Atlantic troughs that favor cooler maritime flows and increased cloud cover. Model runs continue to diverge on jet stream placement and surface wind direction, with small shifts potentially tipping outcomes by 2–3°C. July climatology places typical maxima near 22–24°C, so any outcome above 29°C would require strong anticyclonic setup, while sub-25°C readings would signal an unusually strong northerly component. Updated model guidance over the next 48 hours will likely narrow this spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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