Recent National Weather Service and UCLA forecasts point to a strong marine layer with patchy fog and onshore flow suppressing daytime heating in Los Angeles, positioning a high near 74–78°F as the most likely outcome and explaining the 58.5% market-implied probability on 76–77°F. Seasonal August averages near 85°F are offset by these coastal dynamics, consistent with post-July cooling trends and no active heat ridge. Traders weighting official model consensus and historical coastal analogs have driven the tight clustering around mid-70s readings, with lower odds on 80°F+ reflecting minimal upside risk absent rapid marine layer erosion. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon observations will refine resolution near the 78°F threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on August 12?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 12?
76-77°F 62%
78-79°F 25%
74-75°F 9%
80-81°F 2.1%
NEW
$36,274 Vol.
NEW
$36,274 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
62%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 62%
78-79°F 25%
74-75°F 9%
80-81°F 2.1%
NEW
$36,274 Vol.
NEW
$36,274 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
67°F or below
$1,501 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$932 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$842 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$2,745 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$4,614 Vol.
9%
76-77°F
$7,667 Vol.
62%
78-79°F
$8,878 Vol.
25%
80-81°F
$2,415 Vol.
2%
82-83°F
$3,718 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$2,335 Vol.
1%
86°F or higher
$628 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and UCLA forecasts point to a strong marine layer with patchy fog and onshore flow suppressing daytime heating in Los Angeles, positioning a high near 74–78°F as the most likely outcome and explaining the 58.5% market-implied probability on 76–77°F. Seasonal August averages near 85°F are offset by these coastal dynamics, consistent with post-July cooling trends and no active heat ridge. Traders weighting official model consensus and historical coastal analogs have driven the tight clustering around mid-70s readings, with lower odds on 80°F+ reflecting minimal upside risk absent rapid marine layer erosion. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon observations will refine resolution near the 78°F threshold.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$36,274End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and UCLA forecasts point to a strong marine layer with patchy fog and onshore flow suppressing daytime heating in Los Angeles, positioning a high near 74–78°F as the most likely outcome and explaining the 58.5% market-implied probability on 76–77°F. Seasonal August averages near 85°F are offset by these coastal dynamics, consistent with post-July cooling trends and no active heat ridge. Traders weighting official model consensus and historical coastal analogs have driven the tight clustering around mid-70s readings, with lower odds on 80°F+ reflecting minimal upside risk absent rapid marine layer erosion. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon observations will refine resolution near the 78°F threshold.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$36,274End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and UCLA forecasts point to a strong marine layer with patchy fog and onshore flow suppressing daytime heating in Los Angeles, positioning a high near 74–78°F as the most likely outcome and explaining the 58.5% market-implied probability on 76–77°F. Seasonal August averages near 85°F are offset by these coastal dynamics, consistent with post-July cooling trends and no active heat ridge. Traders weighting official model consensus and historical coastal analogs have driven the tight clustering around mid-70s readings, with lower odds on 80°F+ reflecting minimal upside risk absent rapid marine layer erosion. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon observations will refine resolution near the 78°F threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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