Latest National Weather Service and model guidance point to a daytime high of 82–85°F in New York City on August 3, keeping the two leading market outcomes nearly tied. A moist southerly flow and possible showers or thunderstorms—driven by weak shortwave energy and high boundary-layer humidity—introduce modest cooling that caps peak readings near or slightly below the 83°F August average. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF show limited upside potential above 86°F unless clearer skies and stronger insolation develop, while urban heat-island effects at Central Park measurement sites add a small positive bias. New 12Z model runs and afternoon NWS updates will refine the timing of any convection and the resulting maximum temperature.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 3?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 3?
82-83°F 35%
84-85°F 33%
80-81°F 22%
86-87°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
7%
80-81°F
22%
82-83°F
35%
84-85°F
33%
86-87°F
8%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 35%
84-85°F 33%
80-81°F 22%
86-87°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
73°F or below
$150 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$136 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$92 Vol.
2%
78-79°F
$77 Vol.
7%
80-81°F
$151 Vol.
22%
82-83°F
$195 Vol.
35%
84-85°F
$199 Vol.
33%
86-87°F
$193 Vol.
8%
88-89°F
$3,213 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$96 Vol.
1%
92°F or higher
$345 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and model guidance point to a daytime high of 82–85°F in New York City on August 3, keeping the two leading market outcomes nearly tied. A moist southerly flow and possible showers or thunderstorms—driven by weak shortwave energy and high boundary-layer humidity—introduce modest cooling that caps peak readings near or slightly below the 83°F August average. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF show limited upside potential above 86°F unless clearer skies and stronger insolation develop, while urban heat-island effects at Central Park measurement sites add a small positive bias. New 12Z model runs and afternoon NWS updates will refine the timing of any convection and the resulting maximum temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$4,847End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and model guidance point to a daytime high of 82–85°F in New York City on August 3, keeping the two leading market outcomes nearly tied. A moist southerly flow and possible showers or thunderstorms—driven by weak shortwave energy and high boundary-layer humidity—introduce modest cooling that caps peak readings near or slightly below the 83°F August average. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF show limited upside potential above 86°F unless clearer skies and stronger insolation develop, while urban heat-island effects at Central Park measurement sites add a small positive bias. New 12Z model runs and afternoon NWS updates will refine the timing of any convection and the resulting maximum temperature.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,847End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and model guidance point to a daytime high of 82–85°F in New York City on August 3, keeping the two leading market outcomes nearly tied. A moist southerly flow and possible showers or thunderstorms—driven by weak shortwave energy and high boundary-layer humidity—introduce modest cooling that caps peak readings near or slightly below the 83°F August average. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF show limited upside potential above 86°F unless clearer skies and stronger insolation develop, while urban heat-island effects at Central Park measurement sites add a small positive bias. New 12Z model runs and afternoon NWS updates will refine the timing of any convection and the resulting maximum temperature.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions