Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather points to an overnight low of 73–75°F in New York City on August 3, driven by typical late-summer humidity and light winds that limit radiative cooling after a daytime high near 82°F. These conditions align with the market's leading 74–75°F bin at 45% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on model outputs rather than any unusual pattern. Warmer-than-average August trends noted in recent CPC outlooks add slight upward pressure on minimum temperatures compared with the 1991–2020 baseline of roughly 70°F, though short-term variability in steering flow could still shift the exact reading by a degree or two before official station data finalize the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 3?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 3?
74-75°F 45%
76-77°F 32%
78-79°F 12%
72-73°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
8%
72-73°F
11%
74-75°F
45%
76-77°F
32%
78-79°F
12%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 45%
76-77°F 32%
78-79°F 12%
72-73°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
65°F or below
$95 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$25 Vol.
1%
68-69°F
$154 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$130 Vol.
8%
72-73°F
$154 Vol.
11%
74-75°F
$535 Vol.
45%
76-77°F
$114 Vol.
32%
78-79°F
$103 Vol.
12%
80-81°F
$1,018 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$675 Vol.
1%
84°F or higher
$90 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather points to an overnight low of 73–75°F in New York City on August 3, driven by typical late-summer humidity and light winds that limit radiative cooling after a daytime high near 82°F. These conditions align with the market's leading 74–75°F bin at 45% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on model outputs rather than any unusual pattern. Warmer-than-average August trends noted in recent CPC outlooks add slight upward pressure on minimum temperatures compared with the 1991–2020 baseline of roughly 70°F, though short-term variability in steering flow could still shift the exact reading by a degree or two before official station data finalize the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$3,094End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather points to an overnight low of 73–75°F in New York City on August 3, driven by typical late-summer humidity and light winds that limit radiative cooling after a daytime high near 82°F. These conditions align with the market's leading 74–75°F bin at 45% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on model outputs rather than any unusual pattern. Warmer-than-average August trends noted in recent CPC outlooks add slight upward pressure on minimum temperatures compared with the 1991–2020 baseline of roughly 70°F, though short-term variability in steering flow could still shift the exact reading by a degree or two before official station data finalize the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,094End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather points to an overnight low of 73–75°F in New York City on August 3, driven by typical late-summer humidity and light winds that limit radiative cooling after a daytime high near 82°F. These conditions align with the market's leading 74–75°F bin at 45% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on model outputs rather than any unusual pattern. Warmer-than-average August trends noted in recent CPC outlooks add slight upward pressure on minimum temperatures compared with the 1991–2020 baseline of roughly 70°F, though short-term variability in steering flow could still shift the exact reading by a degree or two before official station data finalize the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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