**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other agencies point to a high near 80–83°F in Central Park on August 2, 2026, driven by increasing cloud cover, a slight chance of showers, and moderating southerly flow after warmer conditions earlier in the period.** This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting on the 82–83°F (42.5%) and 84–85°F (28.5%) bins, while keeping higher outcomes (86°F+) at low single-digit probabilities. Early August climatology in New York City shows an average high of roughly 83°F, so the current setup reflects a near-normal to slightly below-normal outcome rather than the above-average monthly outlook issued in July. Key near-term factors include model consensus on limited daytime heating from increased moisture and possible light precipitation, which caps peak temperatures below the levels seen on August 1. Updated NWS guidance released in the last 24–48 hours has reinforced this cooler profile, supporting the observed shift in trader positioning toward the mid-80s and below. New forecast updates from the NWS and ensemble runs will be the primary near-term drivers of any further movement in these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 2?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?
82-83°F 43%
84-85°F 29%
80-81°F 20%
78-79°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
20%
82-83°F
43%
84-85°F
29%
86-87°F
3%
88-89°F
2%
90°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 43%
84-85°F 29%
80-81°F 20%
78-79°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
71°F or below
$128 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$88 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$189 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$104 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$102 Vol.
5%
80-81°F
$281 Vol.
20%
82-83°F
$593 Vol.
43%
84-85°F
$549 Vol.
29%
86-87°F
$646 Vol.
3%
88-89°F
$258 Vol.
2%
90°F or higher
$83 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other agencies point to a high near 80–83°F in Central Park on August 2, 2026, driven by increasing cloud cover, a slight chance of showers, and moderating southerly flow after warmer conditions earlier in the period.**
This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting on the 82–83°F (42.5%) and 84–85°F (28.5%) bins, while keeping higher outcomes (86°F+) at low single-digit probabilities. Early August climatology in New York City shows an average high of roughly 83°F, so the current setup reflects a near-normal to slightly below-normal outcome rather than the above-average monthly outlook issued in July.
Key near-term factors include model consensus on limited daytime heating from increased moisture and possible light precipitation, which caps peak temperatures below the levels seen on August 1. Updated NWS guidance released in the last 24–48 hours has reinforced this cooler profile, supporting the observed shift in trader positioning toward the mid-80s and below. New forecast updates from the NWS and ensemble runs will be the primary near-term drivers of any further movement in these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$3,022End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other agencies point to a high near 80–83°F in Central Park on August 2, 2026, driven by increasing cloud cover, a slight chance of showers, and moderating southerly flow after warmer conditions earlier in the period.**
This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting on the 82–83°F (42.5%) and 84–85°F (28.5%) bins, while keeping higher outcomes (86°F+) at low single-digit probabilities. Early August climatology in New York City shows an average high of roughly 83°F, so the current setup reflects a near-normal to slightly below-normal outcome rather than the above-average monthly outlook issued in July.
Key near-term factors include model consensus on limited daytime heating from increased moisture and possible light precipitation, which caps peak temperatures below the levels seen on August 1. Updated NWS guidance released in the last 24–48 hours has reinforced this cooler profile, supporting the observed shift in trader positioning toward the mid-80s and below. New forecast updates from the NWS and ensemble runs will be the primary near-term drivers of any further movement in these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,022End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other agencies point to a high near 80–83°F in Central Park on August 2, 2026, driven by increasing cloud cover, a slight chance of showers, and moderating southerly flow after warmer conditions earlier in the period.** This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting on the 82–83°F (42.5%) and 84–85°F (28.5%) bins, while keeping higher outcomes (86°F+) at low single-digit probabilities. Early August climatology in New York City shows an average high of roughly 83°F, so the current setup reflects a near-normal to slightly below-normal outcome rather than the above-average monthly outlook issued in July. Key near-term factors include model consensus on limited daytime heating from increased moisture and possible light precipitation, which caps peak temperatures below the levels seen on August 1. Updated NWS guidance released in the last 24–48 hours has reinforced this cooler profile, supporting the observed shift in trader positioning toward the mid-80s and below. New forecast updates from the NWS and ensemble runs will be the primary near-term drivers of any further movement in these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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