Trader consensus has converged on a 30°C high for Shenzhen today at near-100% market-implied odds because the Shenzhen Meteorological Observatory forecast and supporting regional models project a daytime maximum of exactly 30°C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity, and scattered afternoon convection typical of the mid-August subtropical monsoon regime have kept official hourly readings capped near this level, consistent with climatological norms and station data showing limited exceedance absent stronger synoptic forcing. Resolution depends on the primary Shenzhen station’s official daily maximum. A late-day increase in insolation or localized thunderstorm activity that clears cloud cover could still allow a brief push to 31°C or higher, though current model agreement and observed trends make this improbable before markets close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 20?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 20?
30°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$130,260 Vol.
$130,260 Vol.
Aug 20, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$130,260 Vol.
$130,260 Vol.
Aug 20, 2026
27°C or below
$14,987 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,084 Vol.
No
29°C
$26,139 Vol.
No
30°C
$23,676 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$13,869 Vol.
No
32°C
$11,860 Vol.
No
33°C
$10,428 Vol.
No
34°C
$9,114 Vol.
No
35°C
$5,835 Vol.
No
36°C
$7,404 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$3,863 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus has converged on a 30°C high for Shenzhen today at near-100% market-implied odds because the Shenzhen Meteorological Observatory forecast and supporting regional models project a daytime maximum of exactly 30°C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity, and scattered afternoon convection typical of the mid-August subtropical monsoon regime have kept official hourly readings capped near this level, consistent with climatological norms and station data showing limited exceedance absent stronger synoptic forcing. Resolution depends on the primary Shenzhen station’s official daily maximum. A late-day increase in insolation or localized thunderstorm activity that clears cloud cover could still allow a brief push to 31°C or higher, though current model agreement and observed trends make this improbable before markets close.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$130,260End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus has converged on a 30°C high for Shenzhen today at near-100% market-implied odds because the Shenzhen Meteorological Observatory forecast and supporting regional models project a daytime maximum of exactly 30°C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity, and scattered afternoon convection typical of the mid-August subtropical monsoon regime have kept official hourly readings capped near this level, consistent with climatological norms and station data showing limited exceedance absent stronger synoptic forcing. Resolution depends on the primary Shenzhen station’s official daily maximum. A late-day increase in insolation or localized thunderstorm activity that clears cloud cover could still allow a brief push to 31°C or higher, though current model agreement and observed trends make this improbable before markets close.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$130,260End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus has converged on a 30°C high for Shenzhen today at near-100% market-implied odds because the Shenzhen Meteorological Observatory forecast and supporting regional models project a daytime maximum of exactly 30°C. Persistent cloud cover, elevated humidity, and scattered afternoon convection typical of the mid-August subtropical monsoon regime have kept official hourly readings capped near this level, consistent with climatological norms and station data showing limited exceedance absent stronger synoptic forcing. Resolution depends on the primary Shenzhen station’s official daily maximum. A late-day increase in insolation or localized thunderstorm activity that clears cloud cover could still allow a brief push to 31°C or higher, though current model agreement and observed trends make this improbable before markets close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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