Latest numerical weather prediction models from the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles indicate peak temperatures in Tel Aviv on August 11 most likely reaching 35–36°C, driven by typical late-summer synoptic patterns with light winds, clear skies, and limited marine cooling from the Mediterranean. These conditions align closely with the market’s leading outcomes at 47.5% for 35°C and 31.5% for 36°C. Forecast uncertainty remains due to possible timing of the daily maximum and localized urban heat effects, while climatological averages for early August hover near 32°C. Updated model runs and official IMS briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key data points that could shift trader consensus on exact thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 11?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 11?
35°C 48%
36°C 31%
34°C 12%
37°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
2%
34°C
12%
35°C
48%
36°C
31%
37°C
9%
38°C
1%
39°C
2%
40°C
2%
41°C or higher
<1%
35°C 48%
36°C 31%
34°C 12%
37°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 11, 2026
31°C or below
$88 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$697 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$170 Vol.
2%
34°C
$778 Vol.
12%
35°C
$401 Vol.
48%
36°C
$625 Vol.
31%
37°C
$99 Vol.
9%
38°C
$120 Vol.
1%
39°C
$15 Vol.
2%
40°C
$15 Vol.
2%
41°C or higher
$150 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles indicate peak temperatures in Tel Aviv on August 11 most likely reaching 35–36°C, driven by typical late-summer synoptic patterns with light winds, clear skies, and limited marine cooling from the Mediterranean. These conditions align closely with the market’s leading outcomes at 47.5% for 35°C and 31.5% for 36°C. Forecast uncertainty remains due to possible timing of the daily maximum and localized urban heat effects, while climatological averages for early August hover near 32°C. Updated model runs and official IMS briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key data points that could shift trader consensus on exact thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$3,141End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles indicate peak temperatures in Tel Aviv on August 11 most likely reaching 35–36°C, driven by typical late-summer synoptic patterns with light winds, clear skies, and limited marine cooling from the Mediterranean. These conditions align closely with the market’s leading outcomes at 47.5% for 35°C and 31.5% for 36°C. Forecast uncertainty remains due to possible timing of the daily maximum and localized urban heat effects, while climatological averages for early August hover near 32°C. Updated model runs and official IMS briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key data points that could shift trader consensus on exact thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,141End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models from the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles indicate peak temperatures in Tel Aviv on August 11 most likely reaching 35–36°C, driven by typical late-summer synoptic patterns with light winds, clear skies, and limited marine cooling from the Mediterranean. These conditions align closely with the market’s leading outcomes at 47.5% for 35°C and 31.5% for 36°C. Forecast uncertainty remains due to possible timing of the daily maximum and localized urban heat effects, while climatological averages for early August hover near 32°C. Updated model runs and official IMS briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key data points that could shift trader consensus on exact thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions