Latest official forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and supporting numerical weather models project a daily maximum near 35°C in Tel Aviv on August 12 under clear skies, light winds, and limited marine cooling. This exceeds the mid-August climatological average of roughly 31°C, driven by regional heat patterns and atmospheric conditions that have aligned early observations with this threshold. Trader consensus, reflected in the 99.6% implied probability for 35°C, aggregates skin-in-the-game assessments of these model outputs and real-time data. Realistic challenges include stronger-than-expected sea breezes, increased cloud cover reducing insolation, or minor revisions in official station measurements at resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 12?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 12?
35°C 100.0%
32°C or below <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$41,199 Vol.
$41,199 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
32°C or below
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
Yes
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C or higher
No
35°C 100.0%
32°C or below <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$41,199 Vol.
$41,199 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
32°C or below
$3,131 Vol.
No
33°C
$4,734 Vol.
No
34°C
$10,051 Vol.
No
35°C
$12,213 Vol.
Yes
36°C
$4,890 Vol.
No
37°C
$3,182 Vol.
No
38°C
$1,129 Vol.
No
39°C
$526 Vol.
No
40°C
$526 Vol.
No
41°C
$376 Vol.
No
42°C or higher
$441 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest official forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and supporting numerical weather models project a daily maximum near 35°C in Tel Aviv on August 12 under clear skies, light winds, and limited marine cooling. This exceeds the mid-August climatological average of roughly 31°C, driven by regional heat patterns and atmospheric conditions that have aligned early observations with this threshold. Trader consensus, reflected in the 99.6% implied probability for 35°C, aggregates skin-in-the-game assessments of these model outputs and real-time data. Realistic challenges include stronger-than-expected sea breezes, increased cloud cover reducing insolation, or minor revisions in official station measurements at resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$41,199End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest official forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and supporting numerical weather models project a daily maximum near 35°C in Tel Aviv on August 12 under clear skies, light winds, and limited marine cooling. This exceeds the mid-August climatological average of roughly 31°C, driven by regional heat patterns and atmospheric conditions that have aligned early observations with this threshold. Trader consensus, reflected in the 99.6% implied probability for 35°C, aggregates skin-in-the-game assessments of these model outputs and real-time data. Realistic challenges include stronger-than-expected sea breezes, increased cloud cover reducing insolation, or minor revisions in official station measurements at resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$41,199End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Latest official forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and supporting numerical weather models project a daily maximum near 35°C in Tel Aviv on August 12 under clear skies, light winds, and limited marine cooling. This exceeds the mid-August climatological average of roughly 31°C, driven by regional heat patterns and atmospheric conditions that have aligned early observations with this threshold. Trader consensus, reflected in the 99.6% implied probability for 35°C, aggregates skin-in-the-game assessments of these model outputs and real-time data. Realistic challenges include stronger-than-expected sea breezes, increased cloud cover reducing insolation, or minor revisions in official station measurements at resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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