National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus for Miami on August 21 point to a daily maximum near 92–93°F under subtropical high pressure with light winds and ample insolation, aligning with the market’s leading 45.5% implied probability. Typical late-summer conditions feature highs of 89–92°F, occasionally moderated by sea-breeze convergence or scattered afternoon thunderstorms that reduce peak heating. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, with minimal tropical moisture or frontal influence expected to alter the outcome. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon observations tomorrow will provide the final verification against the 10 a.m.–10 p.m. local window used for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on August 21?
Highest temperature in Miami on August 21?
92-93°F 46%
94-95°F 32%
90-91°F 13%
96-97°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
85°F or below
1%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
13%
92-93°F
46%
94-95°F
32%
96-97°F
5%
98-99°F
2%
100-101°F
1%
102-103°F
1%
104°F or higher
<1%
92-93°F 46%
94-95°F 32%
90-91°F 13%
96-97°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
85°F or below
$88 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$94 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$135 Vol.
4%
90-91°F
$274 Vol.
13%
92-93°F
$319 Vol.
46%
94-95°F
$311 Vol.
32%
96-97°F
$33 Vol.
5%
98-99°F
$81 Vol.
2%
100-101°F
$45 Vol.
1%
102-103°F
$65 Vol.
1%
104°F or higher
$168 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus for Miami on August 21 point to a daily maximum near 92–93°F under subtropical high pressure with light winds and ample insolation, aligning with the market’s leading 45.5% implied probability. Typical late-summer conditions feature highs of 89–92°F, occasionally moderated by sea-breeze convergence or scattered afternoon thunderstorms that reduce peak heating. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, with minimal tropical moisture or frontal influence expected to alter the outcome. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon observations tomorrow will provide the final verification against the 10 a.m.–10 p.m. local window used for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$1,614End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus for Miami on August 21 point to a daily maximum near 92–93°F under subtropical high pressure with light winds and ample insolation, aligning with the market’s leading 45.5% implied probability. Typical late-summer conditions feature highs of 89–92°F, occasionally moderated by sea-breeze convergence or scattered afternoon thunderstorms that reduce peak heating. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, with minimal tropical moisture or frontal influence expected to alter the outcome. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon observations tomorrow will provide the final verification against the 10 a.m.–10 p.m. local window used for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,614End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus for Miami on August 21 point to a daily maximum near 92–93°F under subtropical high pressure with light winds and ample insolation, aligning with the market’s leading 45.5% implied probability. Typical late-summer conditions feature highs of 89–92°F, occasionally moderated by sea-breeze convergence or scattered afternoon thunderstorms that reduce peak heating. Recent model runs show limited spread around this range, with minimal tropical moisture or frontal influence expected to alter the outcome. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon observations tomorrow will provide the final verification against the 10 a.m.–10 p.m. local window used for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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