Persistent high-pressure systems and above-normal sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico sustained a heat wave over southeast Texas, driving National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus toward afternoon highs of 98–99°F at Houston Intercontinental on August 21. Official guidance highlighted heat indices near 108–110°F amid dew points in the mid-70s, consistent with climatological peaks for late August and recent days when readings reached 100°F. This scientific context produced the market’s 100% implied probability on the 98–99°F bin. Only an unexpected shift in steering flow, stronger convective cooling, or a revision in the official maximum observation could realistically alter resolution away from that range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 21?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 21?
98-99°F 100.0%
91°F or below <1%
92-93°F <1%
94-95°F <1%
$38,298 Vol.
$38,298 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
91°F or below
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98-99°F
100%
100-101°F
<1%
102-103°F
<1%
104-105°F
<1%
106-107°F
<1%
108-109°F
<1%
110°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 100.0%
91°F or below <1%
92-93°F <1%
94-95°F <1%
$38,298 Vol.
$38,298 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
91°F or below
$918 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$1,407 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$4,897 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$8,472 Vol.
<1%
98-99°F
$7,544 Vol.
100%
100-101°F
$9,579 Vol.
<1%
102-103°F
$1,791 Vol.
<1%
104-105°F
$1,675 Vol.
<1%
106-107°F
$1,092 Vol.
<1%
108-109°F
$461 Vol.
<1%
110°F or higher
$462 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure systems and above-normal sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico sustained a heat wave over southeast Texas, driving National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus toward afternoon highs of 98–99°F at Houston Intercontinental on August 21. Official guidance highlighted heat indices near 108–110°F amid dew points in the mid-70s, consistent with climatological peaks for late August and recent days when readings reached 100°F. This scientific context produced the market’s 100% implied probability on the 98–99°F bin. Only an unexpected shift in steering flow, stronger convective cooling, or a revision in the official maximum observation could realistically alter resolution away from that range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 9:57 PM ET
Volume
$38,298End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high-pressure systems and above-normal sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico sustained a heat wave over southeast Texas, driving National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus toward afternoon highs of 98–99°F at Houston Intercontinental on August 21. Official guidance highlighted heat indices near 108–110°F amid dew points in the mid-70s, consistent with climatological peaks for late August and recent days when readings reached 100°F. This scientific context produced the market’s 100% implied probability on the 98–99°F bin. Only an unexpected shift in steering flow, stronger convective cooling, or a revision in the official maximum observation could realistically alter resolution away from that range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$38,298End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high-pressure systems and above-normal sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico sustained a heat wave over southeast Texas, driving National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus toward afternoon highs of 98–99°F at Houston Intercontinental on August 21. Official guidance highlighted heat indices near 108–110°F amid dew points in the mid-70s, consistent with climatological peaks for late August and recent days when readings reached 100°F. This scientific context produced the market’s 100% implied probability on the 98–99°F bin. Only an unexpected shift in steering flow, stronger convective cooling, or a revision in the official maximum observation could realistically alter resolution away from that range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Beware of external links.
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