Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are keeping Houston under a heat wave on August 21, 2026, with National Weather Service guidance pointing to overnight lows near 80–82°F amid elevated dew points in the mid-70s. This setup limits radiational cooling and supports the market’s clustering around 78–81°F bins, while historical August averages near 77–78°F provide context for why cooler outcomes retain some probability. Heat advisories remain in effect through the evening, and model consensus shows little change from recent runs, though any unexpected cloud cover or brief shower could nudge the minimum slightly lower before sunrise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Houston on August 21?
80-81°F 58%
72-73°F 43%
74-75°F 28%
76-77°F 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
43%
74-75°F
28%
76-77°F
28%
78-79°F
28%
80-81°F
39%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 58%
72-73°F 43%
74-75°F 28%
76-77°F 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
71°F or below
$215 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$96 Vol.
43%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
28%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
28%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
28%
80-81°F
$25 Vol.
39%
82-83°F
$329 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$457 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$123 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$190 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$290 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are keeping Houston under a heat wave on August 21, 2026, with National Weather Service guidance pointing to overnight lows near 80–82°F amid elevated dew points in the mid-70s. This setup limits radiational cooling and supports the market’s clustering around 78–81°F bins, while historical August averages near 77–78°F provide context for why cooler outcomes retain some probability. Heat advisories remain in effect through the evening, and model consensus shows little change from recent runs, though any unexpected cloud cover or brief shower could nudge the minimum slightly lower before sunrise.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$1,724End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are keeping Houston under a heat wave on August 21, 2026, with National Weather Service guidance pointing to overnight lows near 80–82°F amid elevated dew points in the mid-70s. This setup limits radiational cooling and supports the market’s clustering around 78–81°F bins, while historical August averages near 77–78°F provide context for why cooler outcomes retain some probability. Heat advisories remain in effect through the evening, and model consensus shows little change from recent runs, though any unexpected cloud cover or brief shower could nudge the minimum slightly lower before sunrise.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,724End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are keeping Houston under a heat wave on August 21, 2026, with National Weather Service guidance pointing to overnight lows near 80–82°F amid elevated dew points in the mid-70s. This setup limits radiational cooling and supports the market’s clustering around 78–81°F bins, while historical August averages near 77–78°F provide context for why cooler outcomes retain some probability. Heat advisories remain in effect through the evening, and model consensus shows little change from recent runs, though any unexpected cloud cover or brief shower could nudge the minimum slightly lower before sunrise.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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