SpaceX’s Starship program has conducted just two successful flights reaching space in 2026 so far—Flight 12 in May introducing the V3 vehicle and Flight 13 in late July—after repeated delays from booster testing issues, engine ignition problems, and a scrubbed attempt earlier that month. This measured cadence, driven by iterative hardware upgrades, regulatory scrutiny, and the shift toward orbital objectives with Starlink V3 deployments, underpins trader consensus around 5-6 total space-reaching launches for the year at 59.5% implied probability. With Flight 14 targeted for September and ongoing vehicle production ramping at Starbase, the market reflects realistic expectations of incremental progress rather than rapid weekly operations, while acknowledging risks of further slips that could keep the total under five.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5-6 60%
<5 34%
7-8 8.3%
11-12 3.0%
$492,882 Vol.
$492,882 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
34%
5-6
60%
7-8
8%
9-10
3%
11-12
3%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 60%
<5 34%
7-8 8.3%
11-12 3.0%
$492,882 Vol.
$492,882 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$99,128 Vol.
34%
5-6
$113,791 Vol.
60%
7-8
$158,458 Vol.
8%
9-10
$61,464 Vol.
3%
11-12
$8,366 Vol.
3%
13-14
$9,146 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$30,046 Vol.
<1%
>16
$12,483 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX’s Starship program has conducted just two successful flights reaching space in 2026 so far—Flight 12 in May introducing the V3 vehicle and Flight 13 in late July—after repeated delays from booster testing issues, engine ignition problems, and a scrubbed attempt earlier that month. This measured cadence, driven by iterative hardware upgrades, regulatory scrutiny, and the shift toward orbital objectives with Starlink V3 deployments, underpins trader consensus around 5-6 total space-reaching launches for the year at 59.5% implied probability. With Flight 14 targeted for September and ongoing vehicle production ramping at Starbase, the market reflects realistic expectations of incremental progress rather than rapid weekly operations, while acknowledging risks of further slips that could keep the total under five.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$492,882End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX’s Starship program has conducted just two successful flights reaching space in 2026 so far—Flight 12 in May introducing the V3 vehicle and Flight 13 in late July—after repeated delays from booster testing issues, engine ignition problems, and a scrubbed attempt earlier that month. This measured cadence, driven by iterative hardware upgrades, regulatory scrutiny, and the shift toward orbital objectives with Starlink V3 deployments, underpins trader consensus around 5-6 total space-reaching launches for the year at 59.5% implied probability. With Flight 14 targeted for September and ongoing vehicle production ramping at Starbase, the market reflects realistic expectations of incremental progress rather than rapid weekly operations, while acknowledging risks of further slips that could keep the total under five.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$492,882End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX’s Starship program has conducted just two successful flights reaching space in 2026 so far—Flight 12 in May introducing the V3 vehicle and Flight 13 in late July—after repeated delays from booster testing issues, engine ignition problems, and a scrubbed attempt earlier that month. This measured cadence, driven by iterative hardware upgrades, regulatory scrutiny, and the shift toward orbital objectives with Starlink V3 deployments, underpins trader consensus around 5-6 total space-reaching launches for the year at 59.5% implied probability. With Flight 14 targeted for September and ongoing vehicle production ramping at Starbase, the market reflects realistic expectations of incremental progress rather than rapid weekly operations, while acknowledging risks of further slips that could keep the total under five.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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