Trader sentiment clusters around the historical August average of roughly 80 confirmed U.S. tornadoes, with the near-even split between 60-79 and 80-99 reflecting uncertainty in the second half of the month. Mid-August climatology favors weaker, more isolated events in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes as the jet stream shifts north, though lingering instability and low-level shear can still support brief supercells. The active 2026 season, marked by elevated counts through July, has not yet translated into a clear August signal, and NOAA/SPC outlooks show only marginal to slight severe risks through the coming week. Model consensus on steering patterns and moisture return will determine whether totals finish near or modestly above the long-term mean before final National Weather Service verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
60-79 34%
80-99 34%
100–119 23%
40–59 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<40
2%
40–59
9%
60-79
34%
80-99
34%
100–119
23%
120–139
2%
140-169
7%
170–199
2%
200+
6%
60-79 34%
80-99 34%
100–119 23%
40–59 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<40
$258 Vol.
2%
40–59
$152 Vol.
9%
60-79
$236 Vol.
34%
80-99
$244 Vol.
34%
100–119
$167 Vol.
23%
120–139
$52 Vol.
2%
140-169
$209 Vol.
7%
170–199
$157 Vol.
2%
200+
$245 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment clusters around the historical August average of roughly 80 confirmed U.S. tornadoes, with the near-even split between 60-79 and 80-99 reflecting uncertainty in the second half of the month. Mid-August climatology favors weaker, more isolated events in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes as the jet stream shifts north, though lingering instability and low-level shear can still support brief supercells. The active 2026 season, marked by elevated counts through July, has not yet translated into a clear August signal, and NOAA/SPC outlooks show only marginal to slight severe risks through the coming week. Model consensus on steering patterns and moisture return will determine whether totals finish near or modestly above the long-term mean before final National Weather Service verification.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$1,721End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader sentiment clusters around the historical August average of roughly 80 confirmed U.S. tornadoes, with the near-even split between 60-79 and 80-99 reflecting uncertainty in the second half of the month. Mid-August climatology favors weaker, more isolated events in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes as the jet stream shifts north, though lingering instability and low-level shear can still support brief supercells. The active 2026 season, marked by elevated counts through July, has not yet translated into a clear August signal, and NOAA/SPC outlooks show only marginal to slight severe risks through the coming week. Model consensus on steering patterns and moisture return will determine whether totals finish near or modestly above the long-term mean before final National Weather Service verification.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$1,721End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters around the historical August average of roughly 80 confirmed U.S. tornadoes, with the near-even split between 60-79 and 80-99 reflecting uncertainty in the second half of the month. Mid-August climatology favors weaker, more isolated events in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes as the jet stream shifts north, though lingering instability and low-level shear can still support brief supercells. The active 2026 season, marked by elevated counts through July, has not yet translated into a clear August signal, and NOAA/SPC outlooks show only marginal to slight severe risks through the coming week. Model consensus on steering patterns and moisture return will determine whether totals finish near or modestly above the long-term mean before final National Weather Service verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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