The Republican nominee Chris McGowan holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for Iowa’s 4th congressional district, reflecting the area’s consistent partisan lean. Northwestern Iowa remains a longstanding Republican stronghold, with the seat posting an R+15 or stronger partisan voting index and delivering 67% for the prior GOP incumbent in 2024. Feenstra’s decision to run for governor instead left an open seat, but the June 2 primary produced an unopposed McGowan nomination backed by local business networks, while Democrat Dave Dawson emerged from a low-turnout primary with limited statewide profile. With the November 3 general election still months away, factors such as national economic conditions, turnout differentials in rural counties, or late campaign developments could narrow the gap, though historical margins and district demographics continue to anchor the current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIA-04 House Election Winner
IA-04 House Election Winner
$32,156 Vol.
$32,156 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$32,156 Vol.
$32,156 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$20,064 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$12,091 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee Chris McGowan holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for Iowa’s 4th congressional district, reflecting the area’s consistent partisan lean. Northwestern Iowa remains a longstanding Republican stronghold, with the seat posting an R+15 or stronger partisan voting index and delivering 67% for the prior GOP incumbent in 2024. Feenstra’s decision to run for governor instead left an open seat, but the June 2 primary produced an unopposed McGowan nomination backed by local business networks, while Democrat Dave Dawson emerged from a low-turnout primary with limited statewide profile. With the November 3 general election still months away, factors such as national economic conditions, turnout differentials in rural counties, or late campaign developments could narrow the gap, though historical margins and district demographics continue to anchor the current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$32,156End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee Chris McGowan holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for Iowa’s 4th congressional district, reflecting the area’s consistent partisan lean. Northwestern Iowa remains a longstanding Republican stronghold, with the seat posting an R+15 or stronger partisan voting index and delivering 67% for the prior GOP incumbent in 2024. Feenstra’s decision to run for governor instead left an open seat, but the June 2 primary produced an unopposed McGowan nomination backed by local business networks, while Democrat Dave Dawson emerged from a low-turnout primary with limited statewide profile. With the November 3 general election still months away, factors such as national economic conditions, turnout differentials in rural counties, or late campaign developments could narrow the gap, though historical margins and district demographics continue to anchor the current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,156End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican nominee Chris McGowan holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for Iowa’s 4th congressional district, reflecting the area’s consistent partisan lean. Northwestern Iowa remains a longstanding Republican stronghold, with the seat posting an R+15 or stronger partisan voting index and delivering 67% for the prior GOP incumbent in 2024. Feenstra’s decision to run for governor instead left an open seat, but the June 2 primary produced an unopposed McGowan nomination backed by local business networks, while Democrat Dave Dawson emerged from a low-turnout primary with limited statewide profile. With the November 3 general election still months away, factors such as national economic conditions, turnout differentials in rural counties, or late campaign developments could narrow the gap, though historical margins and district demographics continue to anchor the current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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