The strong Republican tilt of Texas's 11th congressional district, combined with incumbent August Pfluger's established position since 2021, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 93.5%. The district's rural West Texas base delivers consistent conservative margins, reinforced by Pfluger's uncontested or dominant primary performance in March 2026 and the limited profile of Democratic nominee Claire Reynolds, who advanced from her March primary. Historical voting patterns and the absence of major scandals or national shifts altering the race have kept probabilities stable in recent months. A Democratic upset would require an unusually broad national wave, significant late developments such as an incumbent health event or ethical controversy, or dramatic changes in turnout among key voter blocs that have not materialized in prior cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-11 House Election Winner
TX-11 House Election Winner
$32,175 Vol.
$32,175 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$32,175 Vol.
$32,175 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$8,888 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$23,287 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican tilt of Texas's 11th congressional district, combined with incumbent August Pfluger's established position since 2021, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 93.5%. The district's rural West Texas base delivers consistent conservative margins, reinforced by Pfluger's uncontested or dominant primary performance in March 2026 and the limited profile of Democratic nominee Claire Reynolds, who advanced from her March primary. Historical voting patterns and the absence of major scandals or national shifts altering the race have kept probabilities stable in recent months. A Democratic upset would require an unusually broad national wave, significant late developments such as an incumbent health event or ethical controversy, or dramatic changes in turnout among key voter blocs that have not materialized in prior cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$32,175End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican tilt of Texas's 11th congressional district, combined with incumbent August Pfluger's established position since 2021, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 93.5%. The district's rural West Texas base delivers consistent conservative margins, reinforced by Pfluger's uncontested or dominant primary performance in March 2026 and the limited profile of Democratic nominee Claire Reynolds, who advanced from her March primary. Historical voting patterns and the absence of major scandals or national shifts altering the race have kept probabilities stable in recent months. A Democratic upset would require an unusually broad national wave, significant late developments such as an incumbent health event or ethical controversy, or dramatic changes in turnout among key voter blocs that have not materialized in prior cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,175End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Republican tilt of Texas's 11th congressional district, combined with incumbent August Pfluger's established position since 2021, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 93.5%. The district's rural West Texas base delivers consistent conservative margins, reinforced by Pfluger's uncontested or dominant primary performance in March 2026 and the limited profile of Democratic nominee Claire Reynolds, who advanced from her March primary. Historical voting patterns and the absence of major scandals or national shifts altering the race have kept probabilities stable in recent months. A Democratic upset would require an unusually broad national wave, significant late developments such as an incumbent health event or ethical controversy, or dramatic changes in turnout among key voter blocs that have not materialized in prior cycles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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