Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program continue to shape trader assessments of whether enrichment will end by year-end. Iran has signaled readiness to downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile domestically under IAEA supervision while rejecting any transfer abroad or long-term moratorium on its enrichment rights. Washington's latest proposals seek limits on enrichment activities alongside sanctions relief, yet core differences persist on permanent halts and stockpile handling. These diplomatic exchanges, including Iran's review of a U.S. memorandum on nuclear restrictions, have kept probabilities near even as both sides weigh compromises against longstanding red lines. Further progress on verified suspension or renewed impasse could quickly shift the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$194,991 Vol.
$194,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$194,991 Vol.
$194,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program continue to shape trader assessments of whether enrichment will end by year-end. Iran has signaled readiness to downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile domestically under IAEA supervision while rejecting any transfer abroad or long-term moratorium on its enrichment rights. Washington's latest proposals seek limits on enrichment activities alongside sanctions relief, yet core differences persist on permanent halts and stockpile handling. These diplomatic exchanges, including Iran's review of a U.S. memorandum on nuclear restrictions, have kept probabilities near even as both sides weigh compromises against longstanding red lines. Further progress on verified suspension or renewed impasse could quickly shift the balance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$194,991End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program continue to shape trader assessments of whether enrichment will end by year-end. Iran has signaled readiness to downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile domestically under IAEA supervision while rejecting any transfer abroad or long-term moratorium on its enrichment rights. Washington's latest proposals seek limits on enrichment activities alongside sanctions relief, yet core differences persist on permanent halts and stockpile handling. These diplomatic exchanges, including Iran's review of a U.S. memorandum on nuclear restrictions, have kept probabilities near even as both sides weigh compromises against longstanding red lines. Further progress on verified suspension or renewed impasse could quickly shift the balance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$194,991End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program continue to shape trader assessments of whether enrichment will end by year-end. Iran has signaled readiness to downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile domestically under IAEA supervision while rejecting any transfer abroad or long-term moratorium on its enrichment rights. Washington's latest proposals seek limits on enrichment activities alongside sanctions relief, yet core differences persist on permanent halts and stockpile handling. These diplomatic exchanges, including Iran's review of a U.S. memorandum on nuclear restrictions, have kept probabilities near even as both sides weigh compromises against longstanding red lines. Further progress on verified suspension or renewed impasse could quickly shift the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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