**Negotiations between the United States and Iran, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding, have produced commitments from Tehran not to pursue nuclear weapons and to maintain the current status of its program, but have not yielded an agreement to fully end uranium enrichment by the end of 2026.** Talks following military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 focused on stockpile dilution, verification, and limits rather than permanent cessation of enrichment activities. Iran has historically resisted demands for zero enrichment or facility dismantlement, while the 60-day negotiation window outlined in the MOU addressed mechanisms for handling enriched material without resolving a complete halt. IAEA reporting and official statements indicate Iran has not resumed enrichment post-strikes, yet core disputes over long-term program scope persist. These factors underpin trader consensus that a binding commitment to terminate enrichment by December 31 remains unlikely absent major new diplomatic breakthroughs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated11% chance
$1,634,389 Vol.
$1,634,389 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
11% chance
$1,634,389 Vol.
$1,634,389 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Negotiations between the United States and Iran, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding, have produced commitments from Tehran not to pursue nuclear weapons and to maintain the current status of its program, but have not yielded an agreement to fully end uranium enrichment by the end of 2026.**
Talks following military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 focused on stockpile dilution, verification, and limits rather than permanent cessation of enrichment activities. Iran has historically resisted demands for zero enrichment or facility dismantlement, while the 60-day negotiation window outlined in the MOU addressed mechanisms for handling enriched material without resolving a complete halt. IAEA reporting and official statements indicate Iran has not resumed enrichment post-strikes, yet core disputes over long-term program scope persist. These factors underpin trader consensus that a binding commitment to terminate enrichment by December 31 remains unlikely absent major new diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,634,389End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Negotiations between the United States and Iran, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding, have produced commitments from Tehran not to pursue nuclear weapons and to maintain the current status of its program, but have not yielded an agreement to fully end uranium enrichment by the end of 2026.**
Talks following military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 focused on stockpile dilution, verification, and limits rather than permanent cessation of enrichment activities. Iran has historically resisted demands for zero enrichment or facility dismantlement, while the 60-day negotiation window outlined in the MOU addressed mechanisms for handling enriched material without resolving a complete halt. IAEA reporting and official statements indicate Iran has not resumed enrichment post-strikes, yet core disputes over long-term program scope persist. These factors underpin trader consensus that a binding commitment to terminate enrichment by December 31 remains unlikely absent major new diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,634,389End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Negotiations between the United States and Iran, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding, have produced commitments from Tehran not to pursue nuclear weapons and to maintain the current status of its program, but have not yielded an agreement to fully end uranium enrichment by the end of 2026.** Talks following military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 focused on stockpile dilution, verification, and limits rather than permanent cessation of enrichment activities. Iran has historically resisted demands for zero enrichment or facility dismantlement, while the 60-day negotiation window outlined in the MOU addressed mechanisms for handling enriched material without resolving a complete halt. IAEA reporting and official statements indicate Iran has not resumed enrichment post-strikes, yet core disputes over long-term program scope persist. These factors underpin trader consensus that a binding commitment to terminate enrichment by December 31 remains unlikely absent major new diplomatic breakthroughs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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