Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-religious bloc averaging roughly 52-55 seats and the main Zionist opposition bloc around 52-55 seats, with Arab parties holding about 12-14 seats. Neither side reaches the 61-seat majority threshold in most surveys, reflecting a fragmented distribution between Likud, Yashar (led by Gadi Eisenkot), Together (led by Naftali Bennett), smaller right-wing lists, and centrist or left-leaning parties. The outgoing coalition completed a rare full four-year term before the Knesset dissolved in July, but current polling volatility centers on smaller parties near the 3.25% threshold and undecided voters. Traders appear to price in a higher likelihood that post-election negotiations will produce a governing coalition within a reasonable timeframe, consistent with historical patterns of Israeli coalition-building even in close results, rather than an extended deadlock.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsraeli election results in a hung parliament?
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
36% chance
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
36% chance
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-religious bloc averaging roughly 52-55 seats and the main Zionist opposition bloc around 52-55 seats, with Arab parties holding about 12-14 seats. Neither side reaches the 61-seat majority threshold in most surveys, reflecting a fragmented distribution between Likud, Yashar (led by Gadi Eisenkot), Together (led by Naftali Bennett), smaller right-wing lists, and centrist or left-leaning parties. The outgoing coalition completed a rare full four-year term before the Knesset dissolved in July, but current polling volatility centers on smaller parties near the 3.25% threshold and undecided voters. Traders appear to price in a higher likelihood that post-election negotiations will produce a governing coalition within a reasonable timeframe, consistent with historical patterns of Israeli coalition-building even in close results, rather than an extended deadlock.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
Volume
$6,482End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-religious bloc averaging roughly 52-55 seats and the main Zionist opposition bloc around 52-55 seats, with Arab parties holding about 12-14 seats. Neither side reaches the 61-seat majority threshold in most surveys, reflecting a fragmented distribution between Likud, Yashar (led by Gadi Eisenkot), Together (led by Naftali Bennett), smaller right-wing lists, and centrist or left-leaning parties. The outgoing coalition completed a rare full four-year term before the Knesset dissolved in July, but current polling volatility centers on smaller parties near the 3.25% threshold and undecided voters. Traders appear to price in a higher likelihood that post-election negotiations will produce a governing coalition within a reasonable timeframe, consistent with historical patterns of Israeli coalition-building even in close results, rather than an extended deadlock.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,482End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent opinion polls for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-religious bloc averaging roughly 52-55 seats and the main Zionist opposition bloc around 52-55 seats, with Arab parties holding about 12-14 seats. Neither side reaches the 61-seat majority threshold in most surveys, reflecting a fragmented distribution between Likud, Yashar (led by Gadi Eisenkot), Together (led by Naftali Bennett), smaller right-wing lists, and centrist or left-leaning parties. The outgoing coalition completed a rare full four-year term before the Knesset dissolved in July, but current polling volatility centers on smaller parties near the 3.25% threshold and undecided voters. Traders appear to price in a higher likelihood that post-election negotiations will produce a governing coalition within a reasonable timeframe, consistent with historical patterns of Israeli coalition-building even in close results, rather than an extended deadlock.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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