As South Korea’s incumbent president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity that suspends ongoing criminal proceedings and bars arrest or detention absent impeachment or resignation. His Democratic Party’s legislative majority and recent local election gains have blocked any National Assembly moves to lift protections or advance new charges, while earlier corruption and election-law cases remain frozen. No impeachment proceedings or special-counsel actions targeting removal have materialized through mid-2026, leaving the December 31, 2026 resolution window without credible triggers for detention. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to the “no” outcome, reflecting the institutional barriers that historically shield sitting presidents unless extraordinary political consensus emerges for accountability measures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
8% chance
$529,271 Vol.
$529,271 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
8% chance
$529,271 Vol.
$529,271 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.As South Korea’s incumbent president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity that suspends ongoing criminal proceedings and bars arrest or detention absent impeachment or resignation. His Democratic Party’s legislative majority and recent local election gains have blocked any National Assembly moves to lift protections or advance new charges, while earlier corruption and election-law cases remain frozen. No impeachment proceedings or special-counsel actions targeting removal have materialized through mid-2026, leaving the December 31, 2026 resolution window without credible triggers for detention. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to the “no” outcome, reflecting the institutional barriers that historically shield sitting presidents unless extraordinary political consensus emerges for accountability measures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$529,271End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.As South Korea’s incumbent president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity that suspends ongoing criminal proceedings and bars arrest or detention absent impeachment or resignation. His Democratic Party’s legislative majority and recent local election gains have blocked any National Assembly moves to lift protections or advance new charges, while earlier corruption and election-law cases remain frozen. No impeachment proceedings or special-counsel actions targeting removal have materialized through mid-2026, leaving the December 31, 2026 resolution window without credible triggers for detention. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to the “no” outcome, reflecting the institutional barriers that historically shield sitting presidents unless extraordinary political consensus emerges for accountability measures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$529,271End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As South Korea’s incumbent president since June 2025, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity that suspends ongoing criminal proceedings and bars arrest or detention absent impeachment or resignation. His Democratic Party’s legislative majority and recent local election gains have blocked any National Assembly moves to lift protections or advance new charges, while earlier corruption and election-law cases remain frozen. No impeachment proceedings or special-counsel actions targeting removal have materialized through mid-2026, leaving the December 31, 2026 resolution window without credible triggers for detention. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to the “no” outcome, reflecting the institutional barriers that historically shield sitting presidents unless extraordinary political consensus emerges for accountability measures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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