President Lee Jae-myung holds office through 2030 under South Korea’s constitutional immunity provision, which shields sitting presidents from most criminal prosecution except in cases of insurrection or treason. Trials on his pre-inauguration charges remain paused since his June 2025 election victory, while his Democratic Party advances legislation to appoint a special counsel empowered to cancel those indictments. Recent judicial reform bills he approved further consolidate institutional control, and upcoming June local elections test opposition strength without generating impeachment momentum. Traders price the low likelihood of arrest before 2027 at 90.3 percent “No,” reflecting the structural barriers and absence of qualifying political or legal triggers in the current term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
$319,630 Vol.
$319,630 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$319,630 Vol.
$319,630 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Lee Jae-myung holds office through 2030 under South Korea’s constitutional immunity provision, which shields sitting presidents from most criminal prosecution except in cases of insurrection or treason. Trials on his pre-inauguration charges remain paused since his June 2025 election victory, while his Democratic Party advances legislation to appoint a special counsel empowered to cancel those indictments. Recent judicial reform bills he approved further consolidate institutional control, and upcoming June local elections test opposition strength without generating impeachment momentum. Traders price the low likelihood of arrest before 2027 at 90.3 percent “No,” reflecting the structural barriers and absence of qualifying political or legal triggers in the current term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$319,630End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Lee Jae-myung holds office through 2030 under South Korea’s constitutional immunity provision, which shields sitting presidents from most criminal prosecution except in cases of insurrection or treason. Trials on his pre-inauguration charges remain paused since his June 2025 election victory, while his Democratic Party advances legislation to appoint a special counsel empowered to cancel those indictments. Recent judicial reform bills he approved further consolidate institutional control, and upcoming June local elections test opposition strength without generating impeachment momentum. Traders price the low likelihood of arrest before 2027 at 90.3 percent “No,” reflecting the structural barriers and absence of qualifying political or legal triggers in the current term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$319,630End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Lee Jae-myung holds office through 2030 under South Korea’s constitutional immunity provision, which shields sitting presidents from most criminal prosecution except in cases of insurrection or treason. Trials on his pre-inauguration charges remain paused since his June 2025 election victory, while his Democratic Party advances legislation to appoint a special counsel empowered to cancel those indictments. Recent judicial reform bills he approved further consolidate institutional control, and upcoming June local elections test opposition strength without generating impeachment momentum. Traders price the low likelihood of arrest before 2027 at 90.3 percent “No,” reflecting the structural barriers and absence of qualifying political or legal triggers in the current term.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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