Recent polling has driven trader consensus toward Nithya Raman in the November 3 runoff, with a late-September UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times survey showing her at 39% to Karen Bass’s 28% among likely voters and one-third undecided. Bass’s 63% unfavorable rating stems largely from voter criticism of her administration’s response to the 2025 wildfires and persistent challenges with homelessness, housing costs, and city services. Raman, a city councilmember backed by progressive organizations including the Democratic Socialists of America, has consolidated support among younger voters and those seeking a sharper leftward shift. Mail ballots begin arriving in early October, leaving time for the sizable undecided bloc—many of whom backed eliminated primary candidate Spencer Pratt—to influence the final outcome.