Current forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF indicate an overnight minimum near 16°C for Amsterdam on September 19, driven by persistent southwesterly flow advecting mild maritime air and extensive cloud cover limiting radiative cooling overnight. Light rain or showers expected through the period will further moderate temperatures, while the broader September anomaly of roughly +1.6°C above the 1991–2020 baseline supports values well above the long-term average low of 10.7°C. These conditions explain the market's concentration of implied probability on 16°C (51.5%) and 17°C (29.5%), with lower outcomes like 14°C receiving secondary weighting pending final model runs and observational confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 19?
16°C 52%
14°C 39%
15°C 37%
17°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
11°C or below
2%
12°C
11%
13°C
19%
14°C
39%
15°C
37%
16°C
52%
17°C
30%
18°C
11%
19°C
7%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
2%
16°C 52%
14°C 39%
15°C 37%
17°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
12°C
$0 Vol.
11%
13°C
$0 Vol.
19%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
37%
16°C
$21 Vol.
52%
17°C
$6 Vol.
30%
18°C
$0 Vol.
11%
19°C
$0 Vol.
7%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF indicate an overnight minimum near 16°C for Amsterdam on September 19, driven by persistent southwesterly flow advecting mild maritime air and extensive cloud cover limiting radiative cooling overnight. Light rain or showers expected through the period will further moderate temperatures, while the broader September anomaly of roughly +1.6°C above the 1991–2020 baseline supports values well above the long-term average low of 10.7°C. These conditions explain the market's concentration of implied probability on 16°C (51.5%) and 17°C (29.5%), with lower outcomes like 14°C receiving secondary weighting pending final model runs and observational confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$27End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF indicate an overnight minimum near 16°C for Amsterdam on September 19, driven by persistent southwesterly flow advecting mild maritime air and extensive cloud cover limiting radiative cooling overnight. Light rain or showers expected through the period will further moderate temperatures, while the broader September anomaly of roughly +1.6°C above the 1991–2020 baseline supports values well above the long-term average low of 10.7°C. These conditions explain the market's concentration of implied probability on 16°C (51.5%) and 17°C (29.5%), with lower outcomes like 14°C receiving secondary weighting pending final model runs and observational confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and ECMWF indicate an overnight minimum near 16°C for Amsterdam on September 19, driven by persistent southwesterly flow advecting mild maritime air and extensive cloud cover limiting radiative cooling overnight. Light rain or showers expected through the period will further moderate temperatures, while the broader September anomaly of roughly +1.6°C above the 1991–2020 baseline supports values well above the long-term average low of 10.7°C. These conditions explain the market's concentration of implied probability on 16°C (51.5%) and 17°C (29.5%), with lower outcomes like 14°C receiving secondary weighting pending final model runs and observational confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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