Recent National Weather Service and model guidance shows a persistent heat dome advecting warm, humid air from the Southeast, sustaining nocturnal minimum temperatures in Chicago near 78–81°F on September 2—well above the 1991–2020 average low of ~62°F. This setup, with southwest winds and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, supports the market’s tight clustering of probabilities around the mid-70s to low-80s ranges. A potential late-day thunderstorm or earlier cold-front passage could modestly lower the minimum, introducing the observed uncertainty among 45–51% outcomes, while historical analogs for early-September heat waves favor the warmer side of the distribution. Updated NWS forecast discussions and next model runs will clarify any shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 2?
67°F or below 100%
72-73°F 100%
82-83°F 100%
86°F or higher 100%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
67°F or below
100%
68-69°F
96%
70-71°F
98%
72-73°F
100%
74-75°F
49%
76-77°F
97%
78-79°F
96%
80-81°F
97%
82-83°F
100%
84-85°F
98%
86°F or higher
100%
67°F or below 100%
72-73°F 100%
82-83°F 100%
86°F or higher 100%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
67°F or below
$15 Vol.
100%
68-69°F
$15 Vol.
96%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
98%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
100%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
49%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
97%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
96%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
97%
82-83°F
$15 Vol.
100%
84-85°F
$5 Vol.
98%
86°F or higher
$5 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance shows a persistent heat dome advecting warm, humid air from the Southeast, sustaining nocturnal minimum temperatures in Chicago near 78–81°F on September 2—well above the 1991–2020 average low of ~62°F. This setup, with southwest winds and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, supports the market’s tight clustering of probabilities around the mid-70s to low-80s ranges. A potential late-day thunderstorm or earlier cold-front passage could modestly lower the minimum, introducing the observed uncertainty among 45–51% outcomes, while historical analogs for early-September heat waves favor the warmer side of the distribution. Updated NWS forecast discussions and next model runs will clarify any shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$55End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance shows a persistent heat dome advecting warm, humid air from the Southeast, sustaining nocturnal minimum temperatures in Chicago near 78–81°F on September 2—well above the 1991–2020 average low of ~62°F. This setup, with southwest winds and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, supports the market’s tight clustering of probabilities around the mid-70s to low-80s ranges. A potential late-day thunderstorm or earlier cold-front passage could modestly lower the minimum, introducing the observed uncertainty among 45–51% outcomes, while historical analogs for early-September heat waves favor the warmer side of the distribution. Updated NWS forecast discussions and next model runs will clarify any shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$55End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance shows a persistent heat dome advecting warm, humid air from the Southeast, sustaining nocturnal minimum temperatures in Chicago near 78–81°F on September 2—well above the 1991–2020 average low of ~62°F. This setup, with southwest winds and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, supports the market’s tight clustering of probabilities around the mid-70s to low-80s ranges. A potential late-day thunderstorm or earlier cold-front passage could modestly lower the minimum, introducing the observed uncertainty among 45–51% outcomes, while historical analogs for early-September heat waves favor the warmer side of the distribution. Updated NWS forecast discussions and next model runs will clarify any shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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