Forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's minimum temperature on September 1 stems from diverging global model guidance on the arrival and strength of a mid-latitude frontal boundary interacting with subtropical moisture. Ensemble runs show variable timing of cooler northerly flow versus persistent warm, humid southerly air, producing a bimodal distribution where daily lows could dip to 20 °C or below under stronger cold advection or remain near or above 30 °C if the front stalls. Historical September climatology places average minimums near 24–26 °C, so resolution hinges on the next 48-hour model updates from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF, which traders monitor for shifts in 850 hPa temperatures and precipitation timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 1?
30°C or higher 96%
20°C or below 95%
24°C 49%
27°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
20°C or below
95%
21°C
47%
22°C
24%
23°C
25%
24°C
49%
25°C
45%
26°C
26%
27°C
49%
28°C
49%
29°C
49%
30°C or higher
96%
30°C or higher 96%
20°C or below 95%
24°C 49%
27°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
95%
21°C
$0 Vol.
47%
22°C
$0 Vol.
24%
23°C
$0 Vol.
25%
24°C
$0 Vol.
49%
25°C
$0 Vol.
45%
26°C
$0 Vol.
26%
27°C
$0 Vol.
49%
28°C
$0 Vol.
49%
29°C
$0 Vol.
49%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's minimum temperature on September 1 stems from diverging global model guidance on the arrival and strength of a mid-latitude frontal boundary interacting with subtropical moisture. Ensemble runs show variable timing of cooler northerly flow versus persistent warm, humid southerly air, producing a bimodal distribution where daily lows could dip to 20 °C or below under stronger cold advection or remain near or above 30 °C if the front stalls. Historical September climatology places average minimums near 24–26 °C, so resolution hinges on the next 48-hour model updates from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF, which traders monitor for shifts in 850 hPa temperatures and precipitation timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's minimum temperature on September 1 stems from diverging global model guidance on the arrival and strength of a mid-latitude frontal boundary interacting with subtropical moisture. Ensemble runs show variable timing of cooler northerly flow versus persistent warm, humid southerly air, producing a bimodal distribution where daily lows could dip to 20 °C or below under stronger cold advection or remain near or above 30 °C if the front stalls. Historical September climatology places average minimums near 24–26 °C, so resolution hinges on the next 48-hour model updates from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF, which traders monitor for shifts in 850 hPa temperatures and precipitation timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's minimum temperature on September 1 stems from diverging global model guidance on the arrival and strength of a mid-latitude frontal boundary interacting with subtropical moisture. Ensemble runs show variable timing of cooler northerly flow versus persistent warm, humid southerly air, producing a bimodal distribution where daily lows could dip to 20 °C or below under stronger cold advection or remain near or above 30 °C if the front stalls. Historical September climatology places average minimums near 24–26 °C, so resolution hinges on the next 48-hour model updates from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF, which traders monitor for shifts in 850 hPa temperatures and precipitation timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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