Recent northerly winds and drier air masses are the main factors shaping trader views on Guangzhou’s September 11 minimum temperature, with forecasts from multiple models converging on overnight lows near 23–24 °C amid partly cloudy to clear skies. Radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover could push readings toward the lower end of that range, while any lingering thunderstorm activity or higher humidity would limit the drop. Historical September averages place typical minima around 24.5 °C, so the balanced market-implied odds near the extremes reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty rather than a shift away from the consensus range. Updated model runs and official observations over the next 48 hours will clarify whether conditions favor the 23 °C or 24 °C outcomes most heavily.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 11?
19°C or below 96%
29°C or higher 96%
20°C 39%
26°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
19°C or below
96%
20°C
39%
21°C
20%
22°C
20%
23°C
21%
24°C
21%
25°C
20%
26°C
39%
27°C
39%
28°C
39%
29°C or higher
96%
19°C or below 96%
29°C or higher 96%
20°C 39%
26°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
96%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21°C
$0 Vol.
20%
22°C
$0 Vol.
20%
23°C
$0 Vol.
21%
24°C
$0 Vol.
21%
25°C
$0 Vol.
20%
26°C
$0 Vol.
39%
27°C
$0 Vol.
39%
28°C
$0 Vol.
39%
29°C or higher
$0 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northerly winds and drier air masses are the main factors shaping trader views on Guangzhou’s September 11 minimum temperature, with forecasts from multiple models converging on overnight lows near 23–24 °C amid partly cloudy to clear skies. Radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover could push readings toward the lower end of that range, while any lingering thunderstorm activity or higher humidity would limit the drop. Historical September averages place typical minima around 24.5 °C, so the balanced market-implied odds near the extremes reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty rather than a shift away from the consensus range. Updated model runs and official observations over the next 48 hours will clarify whether conditions favor the 23 °C or 24 °C outcomes most heavily.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent northerly winds and drier air masses are the main factors shaping trader views on Guangzhou’s September 11 minimum temperature, with forecasts from multiple models converging on overnight lows near 23–24 °C amid partly cloudy to clear skies. Radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover could push readings toward the lower end of that range, while any lingering thunderstorm activity or higher humidity would limit the drop. Historical September averages place typical minima around 24.5 °C, so the balanced market-implied odds near the extremes reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty rather than a shift away from the consensus range. Updated model runs and official observations over the next 48 hours will clarify whether conditions favor the 23 °C or 24 °C outcomes most heavily.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent northerly winds and drier air masses are the main factors shaping trader views on Guangzhou’s September 11 minimum temperature, with forecasts from multiple models converging on overnight lows near 23–24 °C amid partly cloudy to clear skies. Radiative cooling under reduced cloud cover could push readings toward the lower end of that range, while any lingering thunderstorm activity or higher humidity would limit the drop. Historical September averages place typical minima around 24.5 °C, so the balanced market-implied odds near the extremes reflect genuine short-term forecast uncertainty rather than a shift away from the consensus range. Updated model runs and official observations over the next 48 hours will clarify whether conditions favor the 23 °C or 24 °C outcomes most heavily.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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