Warm southerly airflow and elevated dew points near 24–25°C have maintained elevated nighttime temperatures across Jinan, with official and model consensus (including WeatherBug, Met Office, and local Shandong forecasts) projecting an overnight minimum of 25–27°C on August 25. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers have limited radiative cooling, while the absence of a northerly surge or frontal passage keeps surface temperatures from falling sharply. Historical August climatology for the region shows typical lows in the low- to mid-20s°C, but current conditions sit above recent daily minima (21–23°C earlier in the month). These factors underpin the dominant 82.3% market-implied probability for 22°C or higher, with only modest uncertainty from localized convective cooling or forecast revisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Jinan on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Jinan on August 25?
22°C or higher 99.3%
21°C 9.6%
20°C <1%
19°C <1%
$3,187 Vol.
$3,187 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
10%
22°C or higher
82%
22°C or higher 99.3%
21°C 9.6%
20°C <1%
19°C <1%
$3,187 Vol.
$3,187 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
12°C or below
$195 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$195 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$195 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$195 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$427 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$121 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$142 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$12 Vol.
1%
21°C
$326 Vol.
10%
22°C or higher
$1,368 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Warm southerly airflow and elevated dew points near 24–25°C have maintained elevated nighttime temperatures across Jinan, with official and model consensus (including WeatherBug, Met Office, and local Shandong forecasts) projecting an overnight minimum of 25–27°C on August 25. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers have limited radiative cooling, while the absence of a northerly surge or frontal passage keeps surface temperatures from falling sharply. Historical August climatology for the region shows typical lows in the low- to mid-20s°C, but current conditions sit above recent daily minima (21–23°C earlier in the month). These factors underpin the dominant 82.3% market-implied probability for 22°C or higher, with only modest uncertainty from localized convective cooling or forecast revisions.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$3,187End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Warm southerly airflow and elevated dew points near 24–25°C have maintained elevated nighttime temperatures across Jinan, with official and model consensus (including WeatherBug, Met Office, and local Shandong forecasts) projecting an overnight minimum of 25–27°C on August 25. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers have limited radiative cooling, while the absence of a northerly surge or frontal passage keeps surface temperatures from falling sharply. Historical August climatology for the region shows typical lows in the low- to mid-20s°C, but current conditions sit above recent daily minima (21–23°C earlier in the month). These factors underpin the dominant 82.3% market-implied probability for 22°C or higher, with only modest uncertainty from localized convective cooling or forecast revisions.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,187End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Warm southerly airflow and elevated dew points near 24–25°C have maintained elevated nighttime temperatures across Jinan, with official and model consensus (including WeatherBug, Met Office, and local Shandong forecasts) projecting an overnight minimum of 25–27°C on August 25. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers have limited radiative cooling, while the absence of a northerly surge or frontal passage keeps surface temperatures from falling sharply. Historical August climatology for the region shows typical lows in the low- to mid-20s°C, but current conditions sit above recent daily minima (21–23°C earlier in the month). These factors underpin the dominant 82.3% market-implied probability for 22°C or higher, with only modest uncertainty from localized convective cooling or forecast revisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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