Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models indicate a minimum temperature of 26–28°C on August 25, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and scattered showers or thunderstorms from an active southwesterly monsoon trough. These conditions limit overnight radiative cooling while maintaining dew points around 25–26°C, keeping overnight lows from dropping further. Market-implied probabilities, with 28°C at 40% and 27°C at 30%, align closely with this consensus, as traders weigh the trough’s steady influence against any brief clearing that could allow slightly lower readings. Distant tropical systems pose no direct steering or intensification impact in the next 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 25?
28°C 44%
27°C 30%
26°C 12%
29°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
12%
27°C
30%
28°C
44%
29°C
12%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 44%
27°C 30%
26°C 12%
29°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
$361 Vol.
1%
24°C
$450 Vol.
1%
25°C
$224 Vol.
6%
26°C
$237 Vol.
12%
27°C
$695 Vol.
30%
28°C
$462 Vol.
44%
29°C
$1,269 Vol.
12%
30°C
$208 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$497 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$363 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$279 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models indicate a minimum temperature of 26–28°C on August 25, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and scattered showers or thunderstorms from an active southwesterly monsoon trough. These conditions limit overnight radiative cooling while maintaining dew points around 25–26°C, keeping overnight lows from dropping further. Market-implied probabilities, with 28°C at 40% and 27°C at 30%, align closely with this consensus, as traders weigh the trough’s steady influence against any brief clearing that could allow slightly lower readings. Distant tropical systems pose no direct steering or intensification impact in the next 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$5,046End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models indicate a minimum temperature of 26–28°C on August 25, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and scattered showers or thunderstorms from an active southwesterly monsoon trough. These conditions limit overnight radiative cooling while maintaining dew points around 25–26°C, keeping overnight lows from dropping further. Market-implied probabilities, with 28°C at 40% and 27°C at 30%, align closely with this consensus, as traders weigh the trough’s steady influence against any brief clearing that could allow slightly lower readings. Distant tropical systems pose no direct steering or intensification impact in the next 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,046End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models indicate a minimum temperature of 26–28°C on August 25, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and scattered showers or thunderstorms from an active southwesterly monsoon trough. These conditions limit overnight radiative cooling while maintaining dew points around 25–26°C, keeping overnight lows from dropping further. Market-implied probabilities, with 28°C at 40% and 27°C at 30%, align closely with this consensus, as traders weigh the trough’s steady influence against any brief clearing that could allow slightly lower readings. Distant tropical systems pose no direct steering or intensification impact in the next 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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