Recent forecast model runs show London’s overnight minimum on September 4 likely falling between 16 °C and 18 °C, with Met Office guidance pointing to 12 °C under clearer conditions while other guidance clusters near 16–17 °C. Trader sentiment clusters around these values because small differences in cloud cover, wind speed from the west, and the exact timing of any clearing will determine how much radiational cooling occurs after sunset. Persistent low cloud and moderate southwesterly flow limit cooling and support the higher probabilities assigned to 17 °C and 18 °C, whereas any earlier break in the cloud deck would allow temperatures to drop closer to 16 °C or below. Updated model guidance and official Met Office briefings expected later today will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 4?
Lowest temperature in London on September 4?
17°C 41%
18°C 40%
16°C 20%
15°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
5%
16°C
20%
17°C
41%
18°C
40%
19°C
4%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
17°C 41%
18°C 40%
16°C 20%
15°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
$69 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$92 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$0 Vol.
2%
15°C
$105 Vol.
5%
16°C
$345 Vol.
20%
17°C
$479 Vol.
41%
18°C
$815 Vol.
40%
19°C
$250 Vol.
4%
20°C
$234 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$157 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$71 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs show London’s overnight minimum on September 4 likely falling between 16 °C and 18 °C, with Met Office guidance pointing to 12 °C under clearer conditions while other guidance clusters near 16–17 °C. Trader sentiment clusters around these values because small differences in cloud cover, wind speed from the west, and the exact timing of any clearing will determine how much radiational cooling occurs after sunset. Persistent low cloud and moderate southwesterly flow limit cooling and support the higher probabilities assigned to 17 °C and 18 °C, whereas any earlier break in the cloud deck would allow temperatures to drop closer to 16 °C or below. Updated model guidance and official Met Office briefings expected later today will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,615End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs show London’s overnight minimum on September 4 likely falling between 16 °C and 18 °C, with Met Office guidance pointing to 12 °C under clearer conditions while other guidance clusters near 16–17 °C. Trader sentiment clusters around these values because small differences in cloud cover, wind speed from the west, and the exact timing of any clearing will determine how much radiational cooling occurs after sunset. Persistent low cloud and moderate southwesterly flow limit cooling and support the higher probabilities assigned to 17 °C and 18 °C, whereas any earlier break in the cloud deck would allow temperatures to drop closer to 16 °C or below. Updated model guidance and official Met Office briefings expected later today will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,615End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs show London’s overnight minimum on September 4 likely falling between 16 °C and 18 °C, with Met Office guidance pointing to 12 °C under clearer conditions while other guidance clusters near 16–17 °C. Trader sentiment clusters around these values because small differences in cloud cover, wind speed from the west, and the exact timing of any clearing will determine how much radiational cooling occurs after sunset. Persistent low cloud and moderate southwesterly flow limit cooling and support the higher probabilities assigned to 17 °C and 18 °C, whereas any earlier break in the cloud deck would allow temperatures to drop closer to 16 °C or below. Updated model guidance and official Met Office briefings expected later today will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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