**Recent monsoon activity and persistent cloud cover over Uttar Pradesh are the main drivers keeping minimum temperatures in Lucknow clustered around 26–28°C for August 25.** Official India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts for Lucknow Airport list a minimum of 27°C under partly cloudy skies with light rain, consistent with recent observations of 27°C minima amid scattered thundershowers and high humidity (80–90% at night). These conditions suppress radiative cooling overnight, elevating lows above drier-season norms while preventing sharp drops. Traders are weighting outcomes near 27°C highest because model guidance and climatological patterns during the active monsoon phase show limited day-to-day variability in minima when rainfall persists. Slight downward pressure toward 26°C reflects uncertainty in heavier shower timing or increased cloud thickness that could enhance cooling, while upside risk to 28°C stems from any clearing that allows marginally better heat retention. High dew points near 27–28°C further anchor the range by limiting evaporative effects. Updated IMD guidance and short-range model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Lucknow on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Lucknow on August 25?
27°C 37%
32°C or higher 36%
26°C 32%
28°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
7%
25°C
15%
26°C
32%
27°C
37%
28°C
28%
29°C
21%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
36%
27°C 37%
32°C or higher 36%
26°C 32%
28°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
22°C or below
$130 Vol.
1%
23°C
$146 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$145 Vol.
7%
25°C
$0 Vol.
15%
26°C
$0 Vol.
32%
27°C
$0 Vol.
37%
28°C
$0 Vol.
28%
29°C
$0 Vol.
21%
30°C
$5 Vol.
4%
31°C
$9 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$140 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent monsoon activity and persistent cloud cover over Uttar Pradesh are the main drivers keeping minimum temperatures in Lucknow clustered around 26–28°C for August 25.** Official India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts for Lucknow Airport list a minimum of 27°C under partly cloudy skies with light rain, consistent with recent observations of 27°C minima amid scattered thundershowers and high humidity (80–90% at night). These conditions suppress radiative cooling overnight, elevating lows above drier-season norms while preventing sharp drops.
Traders are weighting outcomes near 27°C highest because model guidance and climatological patterns during the active monsoon phase show limited day-to-day variability in minima when rainfall persists. Slight downward pressure toward 26°C reflects uncertainty in heavier shower timing or increased cloud thickness that could enhance cooling, while upside risk to 28°C stems from any clearing that allows marginally better heat retention. High dew points near 27–28°C further anchor the range by limiting evaporative effects. Updated IMD guidance and short-range model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$575End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent monsoon activity and persistent cloud cover over Uttar Pradesh are the main drivers keeping minimum temperatures in Lucknow clustered around 26–28°C for August 25.** Official India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts for Lucknow Airport list a minimum of 27°C under partly cloudy skies with light rain, consistent with recent observations of 27°C minima amid scattered thundershowers and high humidity (80–90% at night). These conditions suppress radiative cooling overnight, elevating lows above drier-season norms while preventing sharp drops.
Traders are weighting outcomes near 27°C highest because model guidance and climatological patterns during the active monsoon phase show limited day-to-day variability in minima when rainfall persists. Slight downward pressure toward 26°C reflects uncertainty in heavier shower timing or increased cloud thickness that could enhance cooling, while upside risk to 28°C stems from any clearing that allows marginally better heat retention. High dew points near 27–28°C further anchor the range by limiting evaporative effects. Updated IMD guidance and short-range model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$575End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent monsoon activity and persistent cloud cover over Uttar Pradesh are the main drivers keeping minimum temperatures in Lucknow clustered around 26–28°C for August 25.** Official India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts for Lucknow Airport list a minimum of 27°C under partly cloudy skies with light rain, consistent with recent observations of 27°C minima amid scattered thundershowers and high humidity (80–90% at night). These conditions suppress radiative cooling overnight, elevating lows above drier-season norms while preventing sharp drops. Traders are weighting outcomes near 27°C highest because model guidance and climatological patterns during the active monsoon phase show limited day-to-day variability in minima when rainfall persists. Slight downward pressure toward 26°C reflects uncertainty in heavier shower timing or increased cloud thickness that could enhance cooling, while upside risk to 28°C stems from any clearing that allows marginally better heat retention. High dew points near 27–28°C further anchor the range by limiting evaporative effects. Updated IMD guidance and short-range model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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