**Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and AEMET consensus indicate a minimum temperature near 20°C for Madrid on September 8, driven by a shift to clearer skies and northwesterly flow that enhances nighttime radiative cooling after several days of elevated readings.** Highs earlier in the week exceeded 34–36°C under persistent warm air masses, but models show a cooling trend with overnight lows dropping from the mid-20s°C toward 19–21°C as winds shift and humidity decreases. Historical September baselines place typical minima around 15–17°C, so current conditions remain above average yet align with the market-implied 79% probability for 21°C or below. Traders are monitoring the next AEMET briefing and final model runs for any last adjustments ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 8?
21°C or below 83%
22°C 47%
23°C 16%
25°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
21°C or below
83%
22°C
47%
23°C
16%
24°C
1%
25°C
16%
26°C
16%
27°C
15%
28°C
15%
29°C
8%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
21°C or below 83%
22°C 47%
23°C 16%
25°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
83%
22°C
$0 Vol.
47%
23°C
$0 Vol.
16%
24°C
$0 Vol.
1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
16%
26°C
$0 Vol.
16%
27°C
$0 Vol.
15%
28°C
$0 Vol.
15%
29°C
$0 Vol.
8%
30°C
$0 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and AEMET consensus indicate a minimum temperature near 20°C for Madrid on September 8, driven by a shift to clearer skies and northwesterly flow that enhances nighttime radiative cooling after several days of elevated readings.**
Highs earlier in the week exceeded 34–36°C under persistent warm air masses, but models show a cooling trend with overnight lows dropping from the mid-20s°C toward 19–21°C as winds shift and humidity decreases. Historical September baselines place typical minima around 15–17°C, so current conditions remain above average yet align with the market-implied 79% probability for 21°C or below. Traders are monitoring the next AEMET briefing and final model runs for any last adjustments ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and AEMET consensus indicate a minimum temperature near 20°C for Madrid on September 8, driven by a shift to clearer skies and northwesterly flow that enhances nighttime radiative cooling after several days of elevated readings.**
Highs earlier in the week exceeded 34–36°C under persistent warm air masses, but models show a cooling trend with overnight lows dropping from the mid-20s°C toward 19–21°C as winds shift and humidity decreases. Historical September baselines place typical minima around 15–17°C, so current conditions remain above average yet align with the market-implied 79% probability for 21°C or below. Traders are monitoring the next AEMET briefing and final model runs for any last adjustments ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and AEMET consensus indicate a minimum temperature near 20°C for Madrid on September 8, driven by a shift to clearer skies and northwesterly flow that enhances nighttime radiative cooling after several days of elevated readings.** Highs earlier in the week exceeded 34–36°C under persistent warm air masses, but models show a cooling trend with overnight lows dropping from the mid-20s°C toward 19–21°C as winds shift and humidity decreases. Historical September baselines place typical minima around 15–17°C, so current conditions remain above average yet align with the market-implied 79% probability for 21°C or below. Traders are monitoring the next AEMET briefing and final model runs for any last adjustments ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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