Recent official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and supporting numerical models indicate a mild overnight minimum near 9–11°C for Moscow on September 12, supported by westerly flow, light winds under 10 m/s, and partial cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. Daytime highs are expected to reach 16–18°C, several degrees above the 1991–2020 September average low of 8.6°C, consistent with the broader warm anomaly observed earlier in the month. Trader consensus placing the highest implied probability on 14°C or higher reflects this guidance and the narrow uncertainty range in current model runs, though a shift toward clearer skies or altered steering patterns could allow greater cooling before verification at Vnukovo Airport. Updated model guidance and overnight observations will provide the next key inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 12?
14°C or higher 60%
4°C or below 50%
6°C 40%
7°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
4°C or below
50%
5°C
18%
6°C
40%
7°C
40%
8°C
29%
9°C
28%
10°C
25%
11°C
40%
12°C
19%
13°C
7%
14°C or higher
60%
14°C or higher 60%
4°C or below 50%
6°C 40%
7°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
4°C or below
$0 Vol.
50%
5°C
$0 Vol.
18%
6°C
$0 Vol.
40%
7°C
$0 Vol.
40%
8°C
$0 Vol.
29%
9°C
$0 Vol.
28%
10°C
$0 Vol.
25%
11°C
$0 Vol.
40%
12°C
$0 Vol.
19%
13°C
$0 Vol.
7%
14°C or higher
$0 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and supporting numerical models indicate a mild overnight minimum near 9–11°C for Moscow on September 12, supported by westerly flow, light winds under 10 m/s, and partial cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. Daytime highs are expected to reach 16–18°C, several degrees above the 1991–2020 September average low of 8.6°C, consistent with the broader warm anomaly observed earlier in the month. Trader consensus placing the highest implied probability on 14°C or higher reflects this guidance and the narrow uncertainty range in current model runs, though a shift toward clearer skies or altered steering patterns could allow greater cooling before verification at Vnukovo Airport. Updated model guidance and overnight observations will provide the next key inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and supporting numerical models indicate a mild overnight minimum near 9–11°C for Moscow on September 12, supported by westerly flow, light winds under 10 m/s, and partial cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. Daytime highs are expected to reach 16–18°C, several degrees above the 1991–2020 September average low of 8.6°C, consistent with the broader warm anomaly observed earlier in the month. Trader consensus placing the highest implied probability on 14°C or higher reflects this guidance and the narrow uncertainty range in current model runs, though a shift toward clearer skies or altered steering patterns could allow greater cooling before verification at Vnukovo Airport. Updated model guidance and overnight observations will provide the next key inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and supporting numerical models indicate a mild overnight minimum near 9–11°C for Moscow on September 12, supported by westerly flow, light winds under 10 m/s, and partial cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. Daytime highs are expected to reach 16–18°C, several degrees above the 1991–2020 September average low of 8.6°C, consistent with the broader warm anomaly observed earlier in the month. Trader consensus placing the highest implied probability on 14°C or higher reflects this guidance and the narrow uncertainty range in current model runs, though a shift toward clearer skies or altered steering patterns could allow greater cooling before verification at Vnukovo Airport. Updated model guidance and overnight observations will provide the next key inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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