Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on August 25 clustered around 15–17°C, driven by post-frontal cooling after milder conditions earlier in the week. Clear to partly cloudy skies overnight would enhance radiative cooling, potentially pushing lows toward 15°C, while increased low-level moisture or light winds could limit the drop to 17°C. Model spread remains modest this close to the event, with resolution hinging on precise timing of any high-pressure ridge and surface dew points. Traders weigh these variables against historical August nocturnal ranges of 14–18°C when assessing the narrow 35.5%–25.5% odds on the top three outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 25?
16°C 48%
17°C 30%
15°C 18%
14°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
12°C or below
3%
13°C
11%
14°C
15%
15°C
18%
16°C
48%
17°C
30%
18°C
12%
19°C
7%
20°C
4%
21°C
3%
22°C or higher
1%
16°C 48%
17°C 30%
15°C 18%
14°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
12°C or below
$5 Vol.
3%
13°C
$5 Vol.
11%
14°C
$5 Vol.
15%
15°C
$0 Vol.
18%
16°C
$0 Vol.
48%
17°C
$0 Vol.
30%
18°C
$20 Vol.
12%
19°C
$0 Vol.
7%
20°C
$0 Vol.
4%
21°C
$53 Vol.
3%
22°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on August 25 clustered around 15–17°C, driven by post-frontal cooling after milder conditions earlier in the week. Clear to partly cloudy skies overnight would enhance radiative cooling, potentially pushing lows toward 15°C, while increased low-level moisture or light winds could limit the drop to 17°C. Model spread remains modest this close to the event, with resolution hinging on precise timing of any high-pressure ridge and surface dew points. Traders weigh these variables against historical August nocturnal ranges of 14–18°C when assessing the narrow 35.5%–25.5% odds on the top three outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$93End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on August 25 clustered around 15–17°C, driven by post-frontal cooling after milder conditions earlier in the week. Clear to partly cloudy skies overnight would enhance radiative cooling, potentially pushing lows toward 15°C, while increased low-level moisture or light winds could limit the drop to 17°C. Model spread remains modest this close to the event, with resolution hinging on precise timing of any high-pressure ridge and surface dew points. Traders weigh these variables against historical August nocturnal ranges of 14–18°C when assessing the narrow 35.5%–25.5% odds on the top three outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$93End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on August 25 clustered around 15–17°C, driven by post-frontal cooling after milder conditions earlier in the week. Clear to partly cloudy skies overnight would enhance radiative cooling, potentially pushing lows toward 15°C, while increased low-level moisture or light winds could limit the drop to 17°C. Model spread remains modest this close to the event, with resolution hinging on precise timing of any high-pressure ridge and surface dew points. Traders weigh these variables against historical August nocturnal ranges of 14–18°C when assessing the narrow 35.5%–25.5% odds on the top three outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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