**Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo of 22–24°C on August 13, 2026, under cloudy skies with scattered showers.** These conditions limit overnight radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping lows near or slightly below the long-term August average of roughly 24–25°C. The urban heat island effect in central Tokyo further anchors nighttime readings in this range, while elevated humidity sustains warmth. Trader consensus, reflected in the 56.5% implied probability for 24°C and 31.5% for 23°C, aligns closely with the latest JMA guidance of a 23°C minimum. Lower probabilities assigned to 22°C or below reflect the limited cooling potential from forecast cloud cover and showers, which reduce the chance of sharper drops. No significant synoptic shifts, such as a stronger cold front or typhoon influence, appear in the short-range outlook to alter this baseline. Updated model runs or the next JMA briefing could refine these odds if precipitation timing or wind patterns change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?
24°C 55%
23°C 39%
22°C 9%
25°C 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
9%
23°C
39%
24°C
55%
25°C
4%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 55%
23°C 39%
22°C 9%
25°C 4.0%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
18°C or below
$218 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$223 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$276 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$281 Vol.
2%
22°C
$329 Vol.
9%
23°C
$957 Vol.
39%
24°C
$1,139 Vol.
55%
25°C
$197 Vol.
4%
26°C
$264 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$252 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$292 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo of 22–24°C on August 13, 2026, under cloudy skies with scattered showers.** These conditions limit overnight radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping lows near or slightly below the long-term August average of roughly 24–25°C. The urban heat island effect in central Tokyo further anchors nighttime readings in this range, while elevated humidity sustains warmth.
Trader consensus, reflected in the 56.5% implied probability for 24°C and 31.5% for 23°C, aligns closely with the latest JMA guidance of a 23°C minimum. Lower probabilities assigned to 22°C or below reflect the limited cooling potential from forecast cloud cover and showers, which reduce the chance of sharper drops. No significant synoptic shifts, such as a stronger cold front or typhoon influence, appear in the short-range outlook to alter this baseline. Updated model runs or the next JMA briefing could refine these odds if precipitation timing or wind patterns change.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$4,427End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo of 22–24°C on August 13, 2026, under cloudy skies with scattered showers.** These conditions limit overnight radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping lows near or slightly below the long-term August average of roughly 24–25°C. The urban heat island effect in central Tokyo further anchors nighttime readings in this range, while elevated humidity sustains warmth.
Trader consensus, reflected in the 56.5% implied probability for 24°C and 31.5% for 23°C, aligns closely with the latest JMA guidance of a 23°C minimum. Lower probabilities assigned to 22°C or below reflect the limited cooling potential from forecast cloud cover and showers, which reduce the chance of sharper drops. No significant synoptic shifts, such as a stronger cold front or typhoon influence, appear in the short-range outlook to alter this baseline. Updated model runs or the next JMA briefing could refine these odds if precipitation timing or wind patterns change.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,427End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo of 22–24°C on August 13, 2026, under cloudy skies with scattered showers.** These conditions limit overnight radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping lows near or slightly below the long-term August average of roughly 24–25°C. The urban heat island effect in central Tokyo further anchors nighttime readings in this range, while elevated humidity sustains warmth. Trader consensus, reflected in the 56.5% implied probability for 24°C and 31.5% for 23°C, aligns closely with the latest JMA guidance of a 23°C minimum. Lower probabilities assigned to 22°C or below reflect the limited cooling potential from forecast cloud cover and showers, which reduce the chance of sharper drops. No significant synoptic shifts, such as a stronger cold front or typhoon influence, appear in the short-range outlook to alter this baseline. Updated model runs or the next JMA briefing could refine these odds if precipitation timing or wind patterns change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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