Current forecast models show tight clustering around a minimum temperature of 9–10°C for Wellington on September 15, with the 34% and 29.5% market shares reflecting modest uncertainty in the timing and strength of an approaching cold front. Southerly flow behind a high-pressure ridge is expected to deliver clear skies and radiational cooling overnight, while variable cloud cover and wind speeds from the Tasman Sea could limit the drop by 1–2°C. Historical September minima average near 8°C, but recent ECMWF and GFS runs diverge slightly on frontal passage, keeping 8°C and 11°C options viable at 20%. Updated MetService guidance and the next model cycle tomorrow will likely sharpen resolution criteria ahead of the 48-hour window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 15?
15°C or higher 45%
13°C 40%
12°C 39%
9°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
5°C or below
2%
6°C
2%
7°C
21%
8°C
20%
9°C
33%
10°C
31%
11°C
21%
12°C
39%
13°C
40%
14°C
18%
15°C or higher
45%
15°C or higher 45%
13°C 40%
12°C 39%
9°C 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
5°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
6°C
$10 Vol.
2%
7°C
$8 Vol.
21%
8°C
$0 Vol.
20%
9°C
$0 Vol.
33%
10°C
$0 Vol.
31%
11°C
$0 Vol.
21%
12°C
$10 Vol.
39%
13°C
$10 Vol.
40%
14°C
$10 Vol.
18%
15°C or higher
$10 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models show tight clustering around a minimum temperature of 9–10°C for Wellington on September 15, with the 34% and 29.5% market shares reflecting modest uncertainty in the timing and strength of an approaching cold front. Southerly flow behind a high-pressure ridge is expected to deliver clear skies and radiational cooling overnight, while variable cloud cover and wind speeds from the Tasman Sea could limit the drop by 1–2°C. Historical September minima average near 8°C, but recent ECMWF and GFS runs diverge slightly on frontal passage, keeping 8°C and 11°C options viable at 20%. Updated MetService guidance and the next model cycle tomorrow will likely sharpen resolution criteria ahead of the 48-hour window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$68End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models show tight clustering around a minimum temperature of 9–10°C for Wellington on September 15, with the 34% and 29.5% market shares reflecting modest uncertainty in the timing and strength of an approaching cold front. Southerly flow behind a high-pressure ridge is expected to deliver clear skies and radiational cooling overnight, while variable cloud cover and wind speeds from the Tasman Sea could limit the drop by 1–2°C. Historical September minima average near 8°C, but recent ECMWF and GFS runs diverge slightly on frontal passage, keeping 8°C and 11°C options viable at 20%. Updated MetService guidance and the next model cycle tomorrow will likely sharpen resolution criteria ahead of the 48-hour window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$68End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models show tight clustering around a minimum temperature of 9–10°C for Wellington on September 15, with the 34% and 29.5% market shares reflecting modest uncertainty in the timing and strength of an approaching cold front. Southerly flow behind a high-pressure ridge is expected to deliver clear skies and radiational cooling overnight, while variable cloud cover and wind speeds from the Tasman Sea could limit the drop by 1–2°C. Historical September minima average near 8°C, but recent ECMWF and GFS runs diverge slightly on frontal passage, keeping 8°C and 11°C options viable at 20%. Updated MetService guidance and the next model cycle tomorrow will likely sharpen resolution criteria ahead of the 48-hour window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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