Minnesota's 5th congressional district carries a D+32 partisan voter index, ranking among the nation's most Democratic seats and favoring the Democratic nominee in every recent cycle. Incumbent Ilhan Omar's commanding 80.7% victory in the August 11 Democratic primary underscored consolidated support within the party base ahead of the November general election against the Republican nominee. Forecasters from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the contest safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the market's 95.8% implied probability for a Democratic winner. This positioning stems from long-term voter registration patterns, turnout dynamics, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include late-breaking scandals, candidate health issues, or an unprecedented national swing, though structural barriers make such shifts highly unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-05 House Election Winner
MN-05 House Election Winner
$48,403 Vol.
$48,403 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
2%
$48,403 Vol.
$48,403 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$18,221 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$30,182 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 5th congressional district carries a D+32 partisan voter index, ranking among the nation's most Democratic seats and favoring the Democratic nominee in every recent cycle. Incumbent Ilhan Omar's commanding 80.7% victory in the August 11 Democratic primary underscored consolidated support within the party base ahead of the November general election against the Republican nominee. Forecasters from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the contest safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the market's 95.8% implied probability for a Democratic winner. This positioning stems from long-term voter registration patterns, turnout dynamics, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include late-breaking scandals, candidate health issues, or an unprecedented national swing, though structural barriers make such shifts highly unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$48,403End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 5th congressional district carries a D+32 partisan voter index, ranking among the nation's most Democratic seats and favoring the Democratic nominee in every recent cycle. Incumbent Ilhan Omar's commanding 80.7% victory in the August 11 Democratic primary underscored consolidated support within the party base ahead of the November general election against the Republican nominee. Forecasters from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the contest safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the market's 95.8% implied probability for a Democratic winner. This positioning stems from long-term voter registration patterns, turnout dynamics, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include late-breaking scandals, candidate health issues, or an unprecedented national swing, though structural barriers make such shifts highly unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$48,403End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's 5th congressional district carries a D+32 partisan voter index, ranking among the nation's most Democratic seats and favoring the Democratic nominee in every recent cycle. Incumbent Ilhan Omar's commanding 80.7% victory in the August 11 Democratic primary underscored consolidated support within the party base ahead of the November general election against the Republican nominee. Forecasters from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others rate the contest safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the market's 95.8% implied probability for a Democratic winner. This positioning stems from long-term voter registration patterns, turnout dynamics, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include late-breaking scandals, candidate health issues, or an unprecedented national swing, though structural barriers make such shifts highly unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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