Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 will launch in roughly 10 days has become the dominant catalyst, tightening trader focus on a mid-September window around the 12th while leaving room for slippage. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model completed initial pre-training by mid-August and is receiving supplemental training on proprietary SpaceX data to sharpen real-world engineering and scientific reasoning, a differentiator Musk has highlighted against rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI. xAI’s recent cadence—Grok 4.6 shipped August 12—supports the aggressive timeline, yet prior estimates have shifted and no official model card, API identifier, or pricing has appeared. With probabilities clustered tightly across early-to-late September dates and a meaningful share on “no release by September 30,” markets reflect both the founder’s skin-in-the-game signal and the typical uncertainty around large language model deployment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 16 45%
September 18 45%
September 25 44%
September 23 43%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
41%
September 10
39%
September 11
39%
September 12
17%
September 13
22%
September 14
40%
September 15
27%
September 16
45%
September 17
41%
September 18
45%
September 19
23%
September 20
42%
September 21
41%
September 22
41%
September 23
43%
September 24
41%
September 25
44%
September 26
24%
September 27
42%
September 28
41%
September 29
40%
September 30
41%
No release by September 30
38%
September 16 45%
September 18 45%
September 25 44%
September 23 43%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
$0 Vol.
41%
September 10
$0 Vol.
39%
September 11
$0 Vol.
39%
September 12
$317 Vol.
17%
September 13
$55 Vol.
22%
September 14
$0 Vol.
40%
September 15
$21 Vol.
27%
September 16
$0 Vol.
45%
September 17
$0 Vol.
41%
September 18
$0 Vol.
45%
September 19
$0 Vol.
23%
September 20
$0 Vol.
42%
September 21
$0 Vol.
41%
September 22
$0 Vol.
41%
September 23
$0 Vol.
43%
September 24
$0 Vol.
41%
September 25
$0 Vol.
44%
September 26
$0 Vol.
24%
September 27
$0 Vol.
42%
September 28
$0 Vol.
41%
September 29
$0 Vol.
40%
September 30
$0 Vol.
41%
No release by September 30
$0 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 will launch in roughly 10 days has become the dominant catalyst, tightening trader focus on a mid-September window around the 12th while leaving room for slippage. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model completed initial pre-training by mid-August and is receiving supplemental training on proprietary SpaceX data to sharpen real-world engineering and scientific reasoning, a differentiator Musk has highlighted against rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI. xAI’s recent cadence—Grok 4.6 shipped August 12—supports the aggressive timeline, yet prior estimates have shifted and no official model card, API identifier, or pricing has appeared. With probabilities clustered tightly across early-to-late September dates and a meaningful share on “no release by September 30,” markets reflect both the founder’s skin-in-the-game signal and the typical uncertainty around large language model deployment.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Volume
$392End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 will launch in roughly 10 days has become the dominant catalyst, tightening trader focus on a mid-September window around the 12th while leaving room for slippage. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model completed initial pre-training by mid-August and is receiving supplemental training on proprietary SpaceX data to sharpen real-world engineering and scientific reasoning, a differentiator Musk has highlighted against rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI. xAI’s recent cadence—Grok 4.6 shipped August 12—supports the aggressive timeline, yet prior estimates have shifted and no official model card, API identifier, or pricing has appeared. With probabilities clustered tightly across early-to-late September dates and a meaningful share on “no release by September 30,” markets reflect both the founder’s skin-in-the-game signal and the typical uncertainty around large language model deployment.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$392End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 will launch in roughly 10 days has become the dominant catalyst, tightening trader focus on a mid-September window around the 12th while leaving room for slippage. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model completed initial pre-training by mid-August and is receiving supplemental training on proprietary SpaceX data to sharpen real-world engineering and scientific reasoning, a differentiator Musk has highlighted against rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI. xAI’s recent cadence—Grok 4.6 shipped August 12—supports the aggressive timeline, yet prior estimates have shifted and no official model card, API identifier, or pricing has appeared. With probabilities clustered tightly across early-to-late September dates and a meaningful share on “no release by September 30,” markets reflect both the founder’s skin-in-the-game signal and the typical uncertainty around large language model deployment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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