Claude Fable 5.1-max leads trader sentiment at 62% implied probability because Anthropic released the model on September 1, 2026, immediately establishing it as the top performer on independent benchmarks such as BenchLM’s overall index. Its Mythos-class architecture delivers state-of-the-art results in long-horizon coding, agentic workflows, and knowledge work, outperforming the July-launched Claude Opus 5 and earlier variants still reflected in lower-priced contracts. With only 17 days until September 21, the market prices in limited scope for a new competing release from other labs to overtake it before resolution, while the 30.5% “Other” bucket captures residual uncertainty around rapid capability jumps or benchmark shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updatedclaude-fable-5.1-max 47%
claude-opus-5-high 44%
Other 44%
claude-opus-5-max 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
39%
claude-opus-5-high
44%
Other
44%
claude-opus-5-max
13%
claude-opus-4-6-high
6%
claude-fable-5.1-max 47%
claude-opus-5-high 44%
Other 44%
claude-opus-5-max 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
$156 Vol.
39%
claude-opus-5-high
$20 Vol.
44%
Other
$99 Vol.
44%
claude-opus-5-max
$40 Vol.
13%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$135 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Fable 5.1-max leads trader sentiment at 62% implied probability because Anthropic released the model on September 1, 2026, immediately establishing it as the top performer on independent benchmarks such as BenchLM’s overall index. Its Mythos-class architecture delivers state-of-the-art results in long-horizon coding, agentic workflows, and knowledge work, outperforming the July-launched Claude Opus 5 and earlier variants still reflected in lower-priced contracts. With only 17 days until September 21, the market prices in limited scope for a new competing release from other labs to overtake it before resolution, while the 30.5% “Other” bucket captures residual uncertainty around rapid capability jumps or benchmark shifts.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Volume
$311End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Fable 5.1-max leads trader sentiment at 62% implied probability because Anthropic released the model on September 1, 2026, immediately establishing it as the top performer on independent benchmarks such as BenchLM’s overall index. Its Mythos-class architecture delivers state-of-the-art results in long-horizon coding, agentic workflows, and knowledge work, outperforming the July-launched Claude Opus 5 and earlier variants still reflected in lower-priced contracts. With only 17 days until September 21, the market prices in limited scope for a new competing release from other labs to overtake it before resolution, while the 30.5% “Other” bucket captures residual uncertainty around rapid capability jumps or benchmark shifts.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$311End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Fable 5.1-max leads trader sentiment at 62% implied probability because Anthropic released the model on September 1, 2026, immediately establishing it as the top performer on independent benchmarks such as BenchLM’s overall index. Its Mythos-class architecture delivers state-of-the-art results in long-horizon coding, agentic workflows, and knowledge work, outperforming the July-launched Claude Opus 5 and earlier variants still reflected in lower-priced contracts. With only 17 days until September 21, the market prices in limited scope for a new competing release from other labs to overtake it before resolution, while the 30.5% “Other” bucket captures residual uncertainty around rapid capability jumps or benchmark shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions