**David Flippo leads the NV-02 House race with a 75.5% implied probability due to the district’s consistent Republican tilt, where the party holds a sizable registration edge and Donald Trump carried the seat by double digits in recent cycles.** After incumbent Mark Amodei’s February retirement opened the seat, Flippo secured the GOP nomination in the June primary with Trump’s backing and heavy self-funding, defeating the establishment favorite. Teresa Benitez-Thompson won the Democratic primary and benefits from national attention plus some late-September polling showing a narrower gap, yet the underlying partisan math limits her path. Recent ethics complaints over Flippo’s delayed financial disclosures and questions about his residency have drawn scrutiny and prompted some race-rating shifts toward Democrats, while similar complaints targeted Benitez-Thompson; these developments have kept the contest more visible than a typical safe Republican seat but have not overturned the trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee ahead of the November 3 general election.