Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a strong position in Illinois’s 16th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Republican Party an 88.5% implied probability of victory. The rural northern Illinois district carries a consistent Republican lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and prior election margins. LaHood advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Paul Nolley secured the Democratic nomination in an uncontested primary. LaHood’s substantial fundraising edge, established name recognition, and the absence of competitive challengers reinforce the current market consensus. Limited recent developments, such as routine campaign finance filings, have not altered the race’s Solid Republican rating from nonpartisan analysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-16 House Election Winner
IL-16 House Election Winner
$15,625 Vol.
$15,625 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
89%
Democratic Party
12%
$15,625 Vol.
$15,625 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,195 Vol.
89%
Democratic Party
$11,430 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a strong position in Illinois’s 16th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Republican Party an 88.5% implied probability of victory. The rural northern Illinois district carries a consistent Republican lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and prior election margins. LaHood advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Paul Nolley secured the Democratic nomination in an uncontested primary. LaHood’s substantial fundraising edge, established name recognition, and the absence of competitive challengers reinforce the current market consensus. Limited recent developments, such as routine campaign finance filings, have not altered the race’s Solid Republican rating from nonpartisan analysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$15,625End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a strong position in Illinois’s 16th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Republican Party an 88.5% implied probability of victory. The rural northern Illinois district carries a consistent Republican lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and prior election margins. LaHood advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Paul Nolley secured the Democratic nomination in an uncontested primary. LaHood’s substantial fundraising edge, established name recognition, and the absence of competitive challengers reinforce the current market consensus. Limited recent developments, such as routine campaign finance filings, have not altered the race’s Solid Republican rating from nonpartisan analysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,625End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a strong position in Illinois’s 16th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Republican Party an 88.5% implied probability of victory. The rural northern Illinois district carries a consistent Republican lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and prior election margins. LaHood advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary, while Democrat Paul Nolley secured the Democratic nomination in an uncontested primary. LaHood’s substantial fundraising edge, established name recognition, and the absence of competitive challengers reinforce the current market consensus. Limited recent developments, such as routine campaign finance filings, have not altered the race’s Solid Republican rating from nonpartisan analysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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