**Incumbent Claudia Tenney holds a structural edge in New York’s 24th District, rated Solid or Safe Republican by Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, consistent with the district’s R+11 Partisan Voter Index.** Alissa Ellman secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary, yet limited national polling, Tenney’s substantial fundraising lead, and the absence of major late-cycle shifts keep the expected victory margin centered on double-digit Republican outcomes. Traders assign the highest probability to a 15-20 point Republican win, reflecting historical performance in this upstate New York seat and the limited competitive pressure on the incumbent. A sudden national Democratic surge, stronger Ellman turnout in suburban or college-adjacent counties, or unexpected campaign developments could narrow the spread, while continued Republican strength would likely sustain or widen it.