Recent polling averages place National at roughly 29%, projecting 34–36 seats under MMP for the November 7 election, with the right bloc (National, ACT, NZ First) hovering near or just short of a majority in most simulations. National’s support has fallen sharply from its 2023 result, driven by cost-of-living pressures and a sluggish economy, while Labour has also slipped below 30% and the Greens have reached record highs near 16%. Minor-party gains, particularly for the Opportunity Party above the 5% threshold, have narrowed the gap between blocs and introduced overhang and coalition-formation uncertainty. National has ruled out partnering with Opportunity, limiting its path to a clear majority. These dynamics have kept projected seat totals clustered tightly around the low-to-mid 30s, with limited separation expected absent major shifts in the final month of campaigning or late swings in undecided voters.