Traders assign a 98.5% implied probability to no change in the People’s Bank of China’s 7-day reverse repo rate during May 2026, reflecting resilient first-quarter GDP growth near 5% and the central bank’s decision to hold benchmark loan prime rates steady at 3.0% and 3.5% for an eleventh consecutive month in April. Moderately loose monetary policy continues to support ample liquidity through structural tools and reserve-requirement adjustments rather than benchmark rate moves, while rising producer prices and elevated global energy costs have reduced the immediate case for further easing. The market-implied odds align with analyst forecasts that policy will remain on hold absent a sharp deterioration in domestic demand or unexpected external shocks. A surprise rate cut could still materialize if incoming April data reveal a sharper-than-expected slowdown in industrial production or if geopolitical tensions intensify enough to warrant preemptive support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPeople's Bank of China rate change in May?
People's Bank of China rate change in May?
No Change 98.3%
Decrease <1%
Increase <1%
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
Increase
<1%
No Change
98%
Decrease
1%
No Change 98.3%
Decrease <1%
Increase <1%
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
Increase
$2,006 Vol.
<1%
No Change
$2,024 Vol.
98%
Decrease
$1,711 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Traders assign a 98.5% implied probability to no change in the People’s Bank of China’s 7-day reverse repo rate during May 2026, reflecting resilient first-quarter GDP growth near 5% and the central bank’s decision to hold benchmark loan prime rates steady at 3.0% and 3.5% for an eleventh consecutive month in April. Moderately loose monetary policy continues to support ample liquidity through structural tools and reserve-requirement adjustments rather than benchmark rate moves, while rising producer prices and elevated global energy costs have reduced the immediate case for further easing. The market-implied odds align with analyst forecasts that policy will remain on hold absent a sharp deterioration in domestic demand or unexpected external shocks. A surprise rate cut could still materialize if incoming April data reveal a sharper-than-expected slowdown in industrial production or if geopolitical tensions intensify enough to warrant preemptive support.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$5,741End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Traders assign a 98.5% implied probability to no change in the People’s Bank of China’s 7-day reverse repo rate during May 2026, reflecting resilient first-quarter GDP growth near 5% and the central bank’s decision to hold benchmark loan prime rates steady at 3.0% and 3.5% for an eleventh consecutive month in April. Moderately loose monetary policy continues to support ample liquidity through structural tools and reserve-requirement adjustments rather than benchmark rate moves, while rising producer prices and elevated global energy costs have reduced the immediate case for further easing. The market-implied odds align with analyst forecasts that policy will remain on hold absent a sharp deterioration in domestic demand or unexpected external shocks. A surprise rate cut could still materialize if incoming April data reveal a sharper-than-expected slowdown in industrial production or if geopolitical tensions intensify enough to warrant preemptive support.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Volume
$5,741End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 98.5% implied probability to no change in the People’s Bank of China’s 7-day reverse repo rate during May 2026, reflecting resilient first-quarter GDP growth near 5% and the central bank’s decision to hold benchmark loan prime rates steady at 3.0% and 3.5% for an eleventh consecutive month in April. Moderately loose monetary policy continues to support ample liquidity through structural tools and reserve-requirement adjustments rather than benchmark rate moves, while rising producer prices and elevated global energy costs have reduced the immediate case for further easing. The market-implied odds align with analyst forecasts that policy will remain on hold absent a sharp deterioration in domestic demand or unexpected external shocks. A surprise rate cut could still materialize if incoming April data reveal a sharper-than-expected slowdown in industrial production or if geopolitical tensions intensify enough to warrant preemptive support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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