Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has exhibited sustained elite cohesion and institutional control through mid-2026, with no organized coup attempt materializing despite earlier security adjustments around the Kremlin. Reports from March to May highlighted heightened precautions linked to potential internal plots or drone threats, yet these measures coincided with routine command adjustments and the absence of defections among key security figures. Opposition remains fragmented or sidelined, while the ongoing Ukraine conflict and centralized authority have reinforced regime stability without triggering elite fractures. Traders' strong consensus on "No" reflects this pattern of continuity, where historical precedents of failed challenges and current power structures limit near-term risks of disruption.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$126,199 Vol.
$126,199 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
7% chance
$126,199 Vol.
$126,199 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has exhibited sustained elite cohesion and institutional control through mid-2026, with no organized coup attempt materializing despite earlier security adjustments around the Kremlin. Reports from March to May highlighted heightened precautions linked to potential internal plots or drone threats, yet these measures coincided with routine command adjustments and the absence of defections among key security figures. Opposition remains fragmented or sidelined, while the ongoing Ukraine conflict and centralized authority have reinforced regime stability without triggering elite fractures. Traders' strong consensus on "No" reflects this pattern of continuity, where historical precedents of failed challenges and current power structures limit near-term risks of disruption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$126,199End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has exhibited sustained elite cohesion and institutional control through mid-2026, with no organized coup attempt materializing despite earlier security adjustments around the Kremlin. Reports from March to May highlighted heightened precautions linked to potential internal plots or drone threats, yet these measures coincided with routine command adjustments and the absence of defections among key security figures. Opposition remains fragmented or sidelined, while the ongoing Ukraine conflict and centralized authority have reinforced regime stability without triggering elite fractures. Traders' strong consensus on "No" reflects this pattern of continuity, where historical precedents of failed challenges and current power structures limit near-term risks of disruption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$126,199End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has exhibited sustained elite cohesion and institutional control through mid-2026, with no organized coup attempt materializing despite earlier security adjustments around the Kremlin. Reports from March to May highlighted heightened precautions linked to potential internal plots or drone threats, yet these measures coincided with routine command adjustments and the absence of defections among key security figures. Opposition remains fragmented or sidelined, while the ongoing Ukraine conflict and centralized authority have reinforced regime stability without triggering elite fractures. Traders' strong consensus on "No" reflects this pattern of continuity, where historical precedents of failed challenges and current power structures limit near-term risks of disruption.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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