Recent polling ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election in Sachsen-Anhalt consistently placed the SPD between 7% and 9%, well clear of the 5% threshold and comfortably above 6%, reflecting stable support amid a fragmented field where the AfD led at 41-43% and the CDU trailed at 22-24%. Late-August and early-September surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen showed the SPD holding or slightly gaining ground through the final campaign period, with no credible movement toward the lower bound. Official preliminary results confirmed 9.3% for the SPD, aligning with the trader consensus reflected in the 100% implied probability for the Over outcome. Remaining uncertainty centers on final certification of vote counts or any narrow procedural disputes, though historical patterns in German state elections indicate minimal shifts from such reviews.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
>99% chance
$1,616 Vol.
$1,616 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
Over
>99% chance
$1,616 Vol.
$1,616 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election in Sachsen-Anhalt consistently placed the SPD between 7% and 9%, well clear of the 5% threshold and comfortably above 6%, reflecting stable support amid a fragmented field where the AfD led at 41-43% and the CDU trailed at 22-24%. Late-August and early-September surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen showed the SPD holding or slightly gaining ground through the final campaign period, with no credible movement toward the lower bound. Official preliminary results confirmed 9.3% for the SPD, aligning with the trader consensus reflected in the 100% implied probability for the Over outcome. Remaining uncertainty centers on final certification of vote counts or any narrow procedural disputes, though historical patterns in German state elections indicate minimal shifts from such reviews.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volume
$1,616End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Over
No dispute
Final outcome: Over
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election in Sachsen-Anhalt consistently placed the SPD between 7% and 9%, well clear of the 5% threshold and comfortably above 6%, reflecting stable support amid a fragmented field where the AfD led at 41-43% and the CDU trailed at 22-24%. Late-August and early-September surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen showed the SPD holding or slightly gaining ground through the final campaign period, with no credible movement toward the lower bound. Official preliminary results confirmed 9.3% for the SPD, aligning with the trader consensus reflected in the 100% implied probability for the Over outcome. Remaining uncertainty centers on final certification of vote counts or any narrow procedural disputes, though historical patterns in German state elections indicate minimal shifts from such reviews.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$1,616End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Over
No dispute
Final outcome: Over
Recent polling ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election in Sachsen-Anhalt consistently placed the SPD between 7% and 9%, well clear of the 5% threshold and comfortably above 6%, reflecting stable support amid a fragmented field where the AfD led at 41-43% and the CDU trailed at 22-24%. Late-August and early-September surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen showed the SPD holding or slightly gaining ground through the final campaign period, with no credible movement toward the lower bound. Official preliminary results confirmed 9.3% for the SPD, aligning with the trader consensus reflected in the 100% implied probability for the Over outcome. Remaining uncertainty centers on final certification of vote counts or any narrow procedural disputes, though historical patterns in German state elections indicate minimal shifts from such reviews.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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