**Persistent U.S.-Iran tensions and severely constrained shipping flows continue to anchor trader consensus that normal traffic volumes through the Strait of Hormuz will not resume by September 30.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, visible transits remain a small fraction of the pre-war baseline of roughly 125–130 large commercial vessels per day, with recent weekend counts at 14 versus 36 the prior week and daily figures often in the single digits to low teens. Iranian officials have tied any sustained reopening to unmet demands including sanctions relief, while war-risk insurance premiums stay elevated at multiples of normal levels, deterring commercial operators. Recent kinetic incidents, GPS interference, and selective corridor controls have kept the waterway in a “severely restricted” state despite remaining physically open. The primary catalyst sustaining the 99.3% “No” implied probability is the absence of a durable ceasefire or transit settlement in the final week before resolution. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a rapid, verifiable diplomatic accord clearing all lanes and restoring pre-crisis throughput within days, though historical stalled recoveries and ongoing hostilities make this low-probability. Markets price these probabilities with real capital at stake, reflecting the slim window and entrenched barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$9,203,098 Vol.
$9,203,098 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1% chance
$9,203,098 Vol.
$9,203,098 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent U.S.-Iran tensions and severely constrained shipping flows continue to anchor trader consensus that normal traffic volumes through the Strait of Hormuz will not resume by September 30.**
As of mid-to-late September 2026, visible transits remain a small fraction of the pre-war baseline of roughly 125–130 large commercial vessels per day, with recent weekend counts at 14 versus 36 the prior week and daily figures often in the single digits to low teens. Iranian officials have tied any sustained reopening to unmet demands including sanctions relief, while war-risk insurance premiums stay elevated at multiples of normal levels, deterring commercial operators. Recent kinetic incidents, GPS interference, and selective corridor controls have kept the waterway in a “severely restricted” state despite remaining physically open.
The primary catalyst sustaining the 99.3% “No” implied probability is the absence of a durable ceasefire or transit settlement in the final week before resolution. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a rapid, verifiable diplomatic accord clearing all lanes and restoring pre-crisis throughput within days, though historical stalled recoveries and ongoing hostilities make this low-probability. Markets price these probabilities with real capital at stake, reflecting the slim window and entrenched barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
Volume
$9,203,098End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent U.S.-Iran tensions and severely constrained shipping flows continue to anchor trader consensus that normal traffic volumes through the Strait of Hormuz will not resume by September 30.**
As of mid-to-late September 2026, visible transits remain a small fraction of the pre-war baseline of roughly 125–130 large commercial vessels per day, with recent weekend counts at 14 versus 36 the prior week and daily figures often in the single digits to low teens. Iranian officials have tied any sustained reopening to unmet demands including sanctions relief, while war-risk insurance premiums stay elevated at multiples of normal levels, deterring commercial operators. Recent kinetic incidents, GPS interference, and selective corridor controls have kept the waterway in a “severely restricted” state despite remaining physically open.
The primary catalyst sustaining the 99.3% “No” implied probability is the absence of a durable ceasefire or transit settlement in the final week before resolution. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a rapid, verifiable diplomatic accord clearing all lanes and restoring pre-crisis throughput within days, though historical stalled recoveries and ongoing hostilities make this low-probability. Markets price these probabilities with real capital at stake, reflecting the slim window and entrenched barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$9,203,098End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Persistent U.S.-Iran tensions and severely constrained shipping flows continue to anchor trader consensus that normal traffic volumes through the Strait of Hormuz will not resume by September 30.** As of mid-to-late September 2026, visible transits remain a small fraction of the pre-war baseline of roughly 125–130 large commercial vessels per day, with recent weekend counts at 14 versus 36 the prior week and daily figures often in the single digits to low teens. Iranian officials have tied any sustained reopening to unmet demands including sanctions relief, while war-risk insurance premiums stay elevated at multiples of normal levels, deterring commercial operators. Recent kinetic incidents, GPS interference, and selective corridor controls have kept the waterway in a “severely restricted” state despite remaining physically open. The primary catalyst sustaining the 99.3% “No” implied probability is the absence of a durable ceasefire or transit settlement in the final week before resolution. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a rapid, verifiable diplomatic accord clearing all lanes and restoring pre-crisis throughput within days, though historical stalled recoveries and ongoing hostilities make this low-probability. Markets price these probabilities with real capital at stake, reflecting the slim window and entrenched barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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