**Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election produced a narrow centre-left majority (176 seats to 173 for the centre-right bloc), with the Social Democrats remaining the largest party.** Government formation has entered a deadlock, as Magdalena Andersson returned her exploratory mandate after losing Left Party support over the re-election of Moderate Speaker Andreas Norlén. The speaker is now consulting party leaders for the next mandate, likely to Ulf Kristersson’s Moderates. Under Sweden’s negative parliamentarism, multiple attempts to install a prime minister can occur before a snap election is triggered, and the Riksdag’s recent convening keeps focus on coalition negotiations rather than dissolution. No major party has pushed for an early vote, and the tight seat margin plus ongoing legal reviews of results have not yet produced the parliamentary rejection threshold needed to force one. Traders therefore assign high probability to the current parliament completing government formation without a snap election before year-end.