Chiang Wan-an holds a commanding lead in the Taipei mayoral market as the KMT incumbent seeking re-election on November 28, supported by his established governance record and stronger backing among voters aged 50 and older plus KMT and TPP partisans. Recent polling from mid-to-late September shows the race tightening, with Chiang at 41.7% and DPP nominee Puma Shen at 40.5%—within the margin of error—driven by Shen’s gains among younger voters and independents. Minor candidates including Kuo Hsi register under 1% support. Trader consensus appears to discount the latest surveys in favor of incumbency advantages and historical patterns in the capital, though the two-month window leaves room for shifts from campaign events or turnout dynamics.