The absence of any signed peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia by the August 31, 2026 deadline underpins the unanimous trader consensus on a negative outcome. Ongoing military operations, stalled bilateral talks, and the absence of verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs in recent months have aligned with historical patterns of protracted negotiations over territory, security guarantees, and neutrality provisions. Traders' skin-in-the-game assessments reflect these sustained barriers rather than short-term speculation. While a retroactive announcement, reinterpretation of earlier statements, or unexpected resolution trigger could theoretically alter market settlement, the clear passage of the cutoff date without confirmation has locked in the prevailing probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$321,702 Vol.
$321,702 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% chance
$321,702 Vol.
$321,702 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The absence of any signed peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia by the August 31, 2026 deadline underpins the unanimous trader consensus on a negative outcome. Ongoing military operations, stalled bilateral talks, and the absence of verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs in recent months have aligned with historical patterns of protracted negotiations over territory, security guarantees, and neutrality provisions. Traders' skin-in-the-game assessments reflect these sustained barriers rather than short-term speculation. While a retroactive announcement, reinterpretation of earlier statements, or unexpected resolution trigger could theoretically alter market settlement, the clear passage of the cutoff date without confirmation has locked in the prevailing probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$321,702End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The absence of any signed peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia by the August 31, 2026 deadline underpins the unanimous trader consensus on a negative outcome. Ongoing military operations, stalled bilateral talks, and the absence of verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs in recent months have aligned with historical patterns of protracted negotiations over territory, security guarantees, and neutrality provisions. Traders' skin-in-the-game assessments reflect these sustained barriers rather than short-term speculation. While a retroactive announcement, reinterpretation of earlier statements, or unexpected resolution trigger could theoretically alter market settlement, the clear passage of the cutoff date without confirmation has locked in the prevailing probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$321,702End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The absence of any signed peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia by the August 31, 2026 deadline underpins the unanimous trader consensus on a negative outcome. Ongoing military operations, stalled bilateral talks, and the absence of verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs in recent months have aligned with historical patterns of protracted negotiations over territory, security guarantees, and neutrality provisions. Traders' skin-in-the-game assessments reflect these sustained barriers rather than short-term speculation. While a retroactive announcement, reinterpretation of earlier statements, or unexpected resolution trigger could theoretically alter market settlement, the clear passage of the cutoff date without confirmation has locked in the prevailing probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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