Tariff adjustments implemented in early 2025 continue to moderate import growth while exports recover modestly amid supply-chain realignments and gradual dollar depreciation, positioning the annual U.S. trade deficit near 800–900 billion dollars as the consensus outcome. Recent monthly data through March 2026 show goods and services gaps averaging around 60 billion dollars, reflecting slower import volumes in consumer and intermediate goods offset by rising capital-goods inflows tied to domestic investment. Stronger service exports and energy shipments provide further support, yet persistent global demand weakness and ongoing trade-policy uncertainty limit faster narrowing. These dynamics align with trader assessments that place 900 billion to 1 trillion dollars as the next most likely range, with lower-probability outcomes below 700 billion dollars requiring sharper import contraction than current trends indicate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$20,985 Vol.
$20,985 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
7%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
5%
700–800B
9%
800–900B
47%
900B–1T
34%
1T–1.1T
9%
1.1T+
5%
$20,985 Vol.
$20,985 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,637 Vol.
7%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700B
$435 Vol.
5%
700–800B
$456 Vol.
9%
800–900B
$1,008 Vol.
47%
900B–1T
$971 Vol.
34%
1T–1.1T
$441 Vol.
9%
1.1T+
$624 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Tariff adjustments implemented in early 2025 continue to moderate import growth while exports recover modestly amid supply-chain realignments and gradual dollar depreciation, positioning the annual U.S. trade deficit near 800–900 billion dollars as the consensus outcome. Recent monthly data through March 2026 show goods and services gaps averaging around 60 billion dollars, reflecting slower import volumes in consumer and intermediate goods offset by rising capital-goods inflows tied to domestic investment. Stronger service exports and energy shipments provide further support, yet persistent global demand weakness and ongoing trade-policy uncertainty limit faster narrowing. These dynamics align with trader assessments that place 900 billion to 1 trillion dollars as the next most likely range, with lower-probability outcomes below 700 billion dollars requiring sharper import contraction than current trends indicate.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$20,985End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Tariff adjustments implemented in early 2025 continue to moderate import growth while exports recover modestly amid supply-chain realignments and gradual dollar depreciation, positioning the annual U.S. trade deficit near 800–900 billion dollars as the consensus outcome. Recent monthly data through March 2026 show goods and services gaps averaging around 60 billion dollars, reflecting slower import volumes in consumer and intermediate goods offset by rising capital-goods inflows tied to domestic investment. Stronger service exports and energy shipments provide further support, yet persistent global demand weakness and ongoing trade-policy uncertainty limit faster narrowing. These dynamics align with trader assessments that place 900 billion to 1 trillion dollars as the next most likely range, with lower-probability outcomes below 700 billion dollars requiring sharper import contraction than current trends indicate.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$20,985End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tariff adjustments implemented in early 2025 continue to moderate import growth while exports recover modestly amid supply-chain realignments and gradual dollar depreciation, positioning the annual U.S. trade deficit near 800–900 billion dollars as the consensus outcome. Recent monthly data through March 2026 show goods and services gaps averaging around 60 billion dollars, reflecting slower import volumes in consumer and intermediate goods offset by rising capital-goods inflows tied to domestic investment. Stronger service exports and energy shipments provide further support, yet persistent global demand weakness and ongoing trade-policy uncertainty limit faster narrowing. These dynamics align with trader assessments that place 900 billion to 1 trillion dollars as the next most likely range, with lower-probability outcomes below 700 billion dollars requiring sharper import contraction than current trends indicate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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