Elevated mortgage rates following the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate hike to the 3.75%-4% target range have weighed on buyer affordability and slowed transaction velocity in the DC Metro area, contributing to the market-implied concentration around the $524K-$530K band for end-of-month median home values. Recent data show mixed price signals, with Bright MLS reporting a May peak of $680K in median sales prices that moderated to around $650K by August amid rising inventory—up notably year-over-year—and months of supply reaching 3.4 in key counties, pressuring values in condo-heavy segments while detached homes held firmer. Zillow Home Value Index readings near $570K for the District proper reflect ongoing cooling from prior peaks, reinforced by higher Treasury yields and reduced demand signals tied to federal workforce dynamics. With resolution imminent, traders are pricing limited further downside before September 30, though persistent rate sensitivity and seasonal inventory shifts remain key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$524K - $530K 57.4%
$530K - $536K 19.2%
$518K - $524K 18.6%
$536K - $542K 4.0%
$69,790 Vol.
$69,790 Vol.
Oct 10, 2026
<$512K
<1%
$512K - $518K
4%
$518K - $524K
19%
$524K - $530K
57%
$530K - $536K
17%
$536K - $542K
4%
$542K+
1%
$524K - $530K 57.4%
$530K - $536K 19.2%
$518K - $524K 18.6%
$536K - $542K 4.0%
$69,790 Vol.
$69,790 Vol.
Oct 10, 2026
<$512K
$1,821 Vol.
<1%
$512K - $518K
$15,583 Vol.
4%
$518K - $524K
$18,990 Vol.
19%
$524K - $530K
$7,866 Vol.
57%
$530K - $536K
$9,805 Vol.
17%
$536K - $542K
$10,093 Vol.
4%
$542K+
$5,630 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Washington, D.C. Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900475). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Washington, D.C. Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/53)Elevated mortgage rates following the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate hike to the 3.75%-4% target range have weighed on buyer affordability and slowed transaction velocity in the DC Metro area, contributing to the market-implied concentration around the $524K-$530K band for end-of-month median home values. Recent data show mixed price signals, with Bright MLS reporting a May peak of $680K in median sales prices that moderated to around $650K by August amid rising inventory—up notably year-over-year—and months of supply reaching 3.4 in key counties, pressuring values in condo-heavy segments while detached homes held firmer. Zillow Home Value Index readings near $570K for the District proper reflect ongoing cooling from prior peaks, reinforced by higher Treasury yields and reduced demand signals tied to federal workforce dynamics. With resolution imminent, traders are pricing limited further downside before September 30, though persistent rate sensitivity and seasonal inventory shifts remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Washington, D.C. Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900475). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Washington, D.C. Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/53)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900475). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Washington, D.C. Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/53)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$69,790End Date
Oct 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Washington, D.C. Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900475). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Washington, D.C. Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/53)Elevated mortgage rates following the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate hike to the 3.75%-4% target range have weighed on buyer affordability and slowed transaction velocity in the DC Metro area, contributing to the market-implied concentration around the $524K-$530K band for end-of-month median home values. Recent data show mixed price signals, with Bright MLS reporting a May peak of $680K in median sales prices that moderated to around $650K by August amid rising inventory—up notably year-over-year—and months of supply reaching 3.4 in key counties, pressuring values in condo-heavy segments while detached homes held firmer. Zillow Home Value Index readings near $570K for the District proper reflect ongoing cooling from prior peaks, reinforced by higher Treasury yields and reduced demand signals tied to federal workforce dynamics. With resolution imminent, traders are pricing limited further downside before September 30, though persistent rate sensitivity and seasonal inventory shifts remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Washington, D.C. Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900475). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Washington, D.C. Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/53)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Washington, D.C. Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900475). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Washington, D.C. Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/53)
Volume
$69,790End Date
Oct 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated mortgage rates following the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate hike to the 3.75%-4% target range have weighed on buyer affordability and slowed transaction velocity in the DC Metro area, contributing to the market-implied concentration around the $524K-$530K band for end-of-month median home values. Recent data show mixed price signals, with Bright MLS reporting a May peak of $680K in median sales prices that moderated to around $650K by August amid rising inventory—up notably year-over-year—and months of supply reaching 3.4 in key counties, pressuring values in condo-heavy segments while detached homes held firmer. Zillow Home Value Index readings near $570K for the District proper reflect ongoing cooling from prior peaks, reinforced by higher Treasury yields and reduced demand signals tied to federal workforce dynamics. With resolution imminent, traders are pricing limited further downside before September 30, though persistent rate sensitivity and seasonal inventory shifts remain key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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